Bully 2? Canis Be True?
Yeah, but no, but yeah but... says major financial analyst.
Do me maths homework, Patcher, or you're dead!
Michael Pachter, managing director of research for the Los Angeles-based Wedbush Morgan financial services firm has been popping up to speculate about videogames all over the place recently. And why not? Everybody is entitled to an opinion – even a financial services expert.
But where you’d expect him to have an opinion on RockStar’s share price (trans: stock price) or maybe the fate of EA’s CEO, instead he’s been making authoritative predictions for the likelihood of a Bully (trans: Canis Canem Edit) follow-up. He explained to Gamespolitics on January 4th that sales of the game “trailed off pretty dramatically in November” having sold – he assumed – 250,000 worldwide. He then guessed that the game “did not sell particularly well at holiday” with a guestimate of 150,000 sales worldwide in December.
He then expected Bully to sell 200,000 copies, “over the next few months and to disappear from the shelves” before paying off with:
But never let it be said that widely quoted managing directors of research for large financial services organisations can’t get the basic facts of the matter wrong. Sorry, we obviously meant to write, “can’t be a stand-up guy and admit to having been a little off the mark” – because today, Pachter tells the same website that “(Bully) sold over double my expectations in December”.
He then explains “…it is realistic to think a sequel could generate two million units in sales. That is generally suffucient to justify a sequel. I’m not competent to discuss whether it can be built using the GTA 4 engine, so it’s premature to guess how much a sequel would cost, but if the company thinks it can sell two million units of Bully 2, it will probably produce a sequel”, before signing off with, “Please make sure you print my apology to Take Two - I have been consistently wrong about this title.”
So, according to the people who obviously know about these things, there might – or might not – be a sequel to Bully at some point in the future if the current version sells enough units – and that, SPOnG readers, is why chaps like these get the big bucks. We’d suggest that you rush out now and sign up for some sort of economics qualification – you know it makes cents.
But where you’d expect him to have an opinion on RockStar’s share price (trans: stock price) or maybe the fate of EA’s CEO, instead he’s been making authoritative predictions for the likelihood of a Bully (trans: Canis Canem Edit) follow-up. He explained to Gamespolitics on January 4th that sales of the game “trailed off pretty dramatically in November” having sold – he assumed – 250,000 worldwide. He then guessed that the game “did not sell particularly well at holiday” with a guestimate of 150,000 sales worldwide in December.
He then expected Bully to sell 200,000 copies, “over the next few months and to disappear from the shelves” before paying off with:
”Those estimates total 800,000 units at an average wholesale price of around $30, so it will likely generate around $24 million in revenues. Since the game took three years to develop, it likely cost Take-Two close to $15 million in R&D, and my guess is that the company did no better than to break even. I would NOT expect a sequel.”
But never let it be said that widely quoted managing directors of research for large financial services organisations can’t get the basic facts of the matter wrong. Sorry, we obviously meant to write, “can’t be a stand-up guy and admit to having been a little off the mark” – because today, Pachter tells the same website that “(Bully) sold over double my expectations in December”.
He then explains “…it is realistic to think a sequel could generate two million units in sales. That is generally suffucient to justify a sequel. I’m not competent to discuss whether it can be built using the GTA 4 engine, so it’s premature to guess how much a sequel would cost, but if the company thinks it can sell two million units of Bully 2, it will probably produce a sequel”, before signing off with, “Please make sure you print my apology to Take Two - I have been consistently wrong about this title.”
So, according to the people who obviously know about these things, there might – or might not – be a sequel to Bully at some point in the future if the current version sells enough units – and that, SPOnG readers, is why chaps like these get the big bucks. We’d suggest that you rush out now and sign up for some sort of economics qualification – you know it makes cents.
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Comments
Joji 15 Jan 2007 13:43
1/13
Analysts eh! To listen to them too much you'd need half a brain anyway.
If you know games well enough, you'll know that CCE was unique enough and good enough to sell for Rockstar. I can see a sequel at some point, but running on a better graphics engine.
Everyone can relate to the school experience so I believe that will always sell this series. What Rockstar need to do is spread the game further, possibly to Wii too.
The negative pre-hype also help sell CCE much to the chargrin of Jack Thompson, so that's a damn good reason to buy it.
What happened to the columbine sim cries Jack? Oh, he's runnin silent now.
If you know games well enough, you'll know that CCE was unique enough and good enough to sell for Rockstar. I can see a sequel at some point, but running on a better graphics engine.
Everyone can relate to the school experience so I believe that will always sell this series. What Rockstar need to do is spread the game further, possibly to Wii too.
The negative pre-hype also help sell CCE much to the chargrin of Jack Thompson, so that's a damn good reason to buy it.
What happened to the columbine sim cries Jack? Oh, he's runnin silent now.
TimSpong 15 Jan 2007 14:50
2/13
Joji wrote:
Analysts eh! To listen to them too much you'd need half a brain anyway.
When analysts come out with guesses, suppositions and projections that turn out to be plain wrong, the shareholders get scared. One day this will lead to a good project being canned because the analyst did not have the good grace to retract. To give Pachter his due, at least he did back down.
The issue we're discovering more and more often now is that the industry is crying, "Shareholder value!" as an excuse to lock-down information and alter its strategies.
Of course, that’s how markets apparently work, but this can also strangle any innovation. After all, if something is not proven, why take the risk?
I've been in meetings where UK-based publishers have said, baldly, that they are unable to talk about what's happening in the UK - to inform UK gamers - because the parent organisation is terrified that even seemingly innocuous statements will ‘negatively impact’ the share price.
This can also lead to strangulated interviews that dance around subjects other than, “Why is your game so great?” or “Why is Platform B so fantastic”.
Unless we get them right, proper drunk of course...
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shagara 12 Jul 2008 02:30
3/13
bully is the best rockstar game ever, theres gonna be a sequel it would be the best there was the best there is and the best of all times.
Anonymous 20 Aug 2008 19:43
4/13
If there was a sequel maybey Jimmy is in his last year of high school. Jimmy Hopkins is now 16 years old. There could also be a new clique a good way to introduce new characters. Also Gary could make a reapearance wanting revenge on Jimmy for defeating him on the first game. I think that would be a good idea for a sequel but that is just my oppinion.
Danzil 20 Jan 2009 20:13
5/13
OH, man i really want to play the second Bully (if there is going to be one).The game is really exciting and makes your adrenaline flow in your blood. The game is funny, enjoyable and i couldn't even leave my chair when i was playing. OMG i am even playing it the second time!!!
dang daner 3 Mar 2009 22:07
6/13
well im not there yet but when im a bit older im gonna start making it no joke i have the ideas and everything i will make the sequel with awesome graphics new character and a expanded bullworth like saints row 2
Joji 4 Mar 2009 13:11
7/13
You know what I'd really love, is for them to use some more of those cool ideas from old Speccy game, Skool Dayz.
Perhaps give you the option, to select a male or female student, might give the game more replay value too. I know the 360 cut is cheap now, so its on my list to pick up. With GTA4 engine, it should look groovy.
Perhaps give you the option, to select a male or female student, might give the game more replay value too. I know the 360 cut is cheap now, so its on my list to pick up. With GTA4 engine, it should look groovy.
bully looover! 8 Apr 2009 21:40
8/13
i really really hope they make a bully 2 it will just x3 your revenue and make a lot of money and also i even have an idea of it!he could either be in college or a high school senior and sense in shop class they said cars are only for seniors maybe he could drive one and gary is back to cause some trouble and if with the slightest consideration you can make a bully 3 and put jimmy in college because the game bully and college would be a PERFECT MIX!
Drumhero 23 May 2009 14:53
9/13
[i]this game is purely for the fans and should therefore be a sequel it means so much to all us gamers and is a gr8 change from the usual generic shooters and crap to give us a unique masterpiece ive never had so much fun in school rockstar have got to make a sequel stupid if they dont its time to give somethin bak to their loyal fans repsect to every1 on this page dont stop till it comes out guys viva la canis bring it out ion ps3 more stuff bigger mapo online bung it full of content wooooooooo
ShecklerElement 26 May 2009 10:11
10/13
I dont think you would have cars in the game, because thats just moving into Gta territory. They wouldnt want another version of Gta with a different name. They should just stick to bikes like a normal student would have, One year later. Maybe a driving test near the end though. I think it should be the same school with a few building changes and more students. I know it would sell because i know alot of people who are hoping for a sequel, we'll just have to wait and see! If they had a Gta 4 engine rather than the old Gta San Andreas/Vice City one it would be pretty decent. And if they knew Scholarship edition would sell, why cant Bully 2 sell?
user 5 Oct 2009 22:31
11/13
bully rubbish bully 2 would be decent don'nt make a sequel for bully 2 not gonna sell much.
parker 9 Nov 2009 05:04
12/13
if rockstar games make a sequel to bully, i would totally buy it. BULLY IS THE BEST!
???? 9 Dec 2009 15:11
13/13
if dey make bully 2 dey should make it about gary and call it bully 2 the revenge of gary smith