Take Two: GTA IV in April Clue - Bioshock's Huge Sales

Investor site, Seeking Alpha, has done a quick analysis on Take-Two Interactive's projected fiscal 2008 - and also 2007's history - and four things stand out a mile: the new management team has made something of a difference; Bioshock was a massive boon; the delay to Grand Theft Auto IV in August hurt; the games "April Quarter" release will be a turning point.

First of all, the claim made in the article that, "...the preliminary benefits of cost rationalization strategies enacted by Take-Two’s new management team aiding the bottom line, net revenues rose a solid 10.0% (for 2006/2007)".

Basically, the team put in place by new CEO, Strauss Zelnick, last March made changes that cheered stockholders. Essentially, this meant the dismissal of the previous board.

Zelnick is the guy who also pointed out that Manhunt 2 "...brings a unique, formerly unheard of cinematic quality to interactive entertainment, and is also a fine piece of art", back in June of 2007.

It wasn't merely suits replacing suits that helped. One game (a, if not the standout of 2007 in our opinion) also tipped the balance. Seeking Alpha, being an investor site not a games site, cutely points out, "The top line advance was attributed to strong demand for the under the radar hit title Bioshock for the Xbox 360 game platform, which shipped an impressive 2.0 million units".

It's our underlining there...

Finally, the effect of Grand Theft Auto IV. Looking at the stock price for Take 2 over 2007, one huge dip stands out. While the price went up in April (following the change of board), it plummeted in early August.

Looking back over SPOnG's GTA IV news coverage, the August 3rd story: "Grand Theft Auto IV Delayed: 2008 Release" points out that, "Take-Two Interactive's chairman Strauss Zelnick, has told investors that Grand Theft Auto IV won't be released until the 'April quarter' of 2008".

Down went Take-Two's price with investors - and didn't reach $20 (£10.23) for the rest of the year, let alone reach its March 3rd peak of $23.70 (£12).

Analyst, Brian Sozzi, sees GTA IV as being crucial to the fortunes of its parent company. He points out, "As for Take-Two, the story continues to be the upcoming release of Grand Theft Auto IV in early 2008.

"Consistent with our prior viewpoints, we believe that shares of Take-Two fail to properly price in the earnings potential of Grand Theft Auto IV, which will be released across the quickly expanding bases of the Xbox 360 and Playstation 3 in a fairly uncompetitive launch window".

So, basically, he's saying, "Take-Two's shares are priced too low, given the fact that GTA IV is going to sell millions..."

Before we go, let's just look back at Strauss Zelnick's August 3rd statement about the the 'April Quarter' release date for GTA IV... did anybody mention April 25th?

^{Source: Seeking Alpha}