Nintendo's Bubble Set To Burst?

Analysts attack

Posted by Staff
Nintendo's Bubble Set To Burst?
The Wii's success may not be as sturdy as Nintendo would have us believe, according to some analysts. They have predicted that the console may start to lose ground to Microsoft and Sony in the face of price cuts and its own limited catalogue.

Pelham Smithers, a London- based analyst with Pali International, said, “This Christmas, Wii will win, but not to the same extent they've been winning. Next year, the playing field will level even more.'' He has marked his advice on Nintendo stock as 'sell'.

Smithers thinks that Sony and Microsoft will announce further price drops as production costs lower, putting pressure on Nintendo.

There is concern from some quarters that Nintendo's stock surge earlier this year may leave little room for growth. Shares have fallen 16% since July 26th, the day after Nintendo posted record earnings. This is partly attributed to concerns that the rising value of the Yen will hurt sales outside Japan.

“The valuation is high”, said Hirotoshi Murakami, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ in Tokyo who has a rating of 'underperform' for Nintendo shares. “It's easy to get bored with games like the hit title Wii Sports after just a few times,” Murakami said. “Whether Nintendo can continue to make games that sell well remains a question.”

Meanwhile, Nintendo has just announced that the Wii is the fastest-selling home console in UK history, having hit the 1 million sales mark after 38 weeks. The platform also continues to perform well in software sales, with it and the DS dominating the UK Top 10 despite their lack of traditional games.

Is the Wii a fad that will soon be overrun by the 360 and PS3? Answers in the Forum, please.
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Comments

Joji 30 Aug 2007 13:41
1/19
Its a possibility that this could happen, and I'm damn sure 360 is gonna do well this xmas. Its made possible more so if Nintendo don't sort out their production end of Wii. 360 is gonna be serving the hardcore one hell of an xmas, and I'm glad I'm gonna be party of that.

Wii should do okay though, Mario Galaxy and Metroid 3 will lead the rush, with 360 and Wii cutting up the market between them. PS3 will do well, but I still think Sony have left there price cut too small and too late. With 360 Elite now on shelves, the final nail has been hit. If PS3 doesn't match that £300 price tag soon, it gonna be left with its cheese out in the wind. The clock is ticking.
Captain Chaos! 30 Aug 2007 13:50
2/19
Is Nintendos bubble going to burst?

Dont talk soft!



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irritant 30 Aug 2007 15:50
3/19
No-one seems to have considered that Nintendo could also drop their price. I suspect that it's production cost to sales price ratio is the better of the three (from the manufacturer's point of view) and therefore they have the most room to manoeuvre (although Microsoft do have unlimited money available).

As soon as either console comes anywhere near the Wii for price (yes I know the core system is pretty close already) they will drop their price. All rumours point to the fact that the Wii was going to cost £150 in the UK but they put the price up when the PS3 was delayed and the rediculous price of the PS3 was announced (more reasons to hate Sony, they make the Wii more expensive in Europe) but Nintendo don't need to drop prices because they don't really have any serious competition yet.
alexh2o 30 Aug 2007 17:00
4/19
Their biggest problem is that they cant make it too cheap! Sounds stupid I know, but humans are strange beasts. You can lower your price to such an extent the product is seen as cheap or lacking. Then people buy the more expensive but "better" option. £149.99 is very, very close to that for a home console. Nintendo would be better served I reckon sticking to their current price but throwing in extra controllers/games to sweeten the deal.
haritori 30 Aug 2007 17:16
5/19
i agree that nintendo could also drop their price at present they are making profit on every console, as nintendo like to rework their handhelds then whats stopping them reworking the Wii and at the same time reducing costs and even if they dropped the price to the point where they break even then that will be still very competitive price that sony or MS couldnt match, i think we can agree that a main selling point of the wii was price, when kids were asking for Wii for xmas and birthdays parents were possibly overjoyed that they didnt want a PS3 and its price which surly helped it sell, so if sony and MS can drop the price then so can nintendo and continue to sell very well, but in the end its us who benifit
headcasephil 30 Aug 2007 17:25
6/19
Joji wrote:
Its a possibility that this could happen, and I'm damn sure 360 is gonna do well this xmas. Its made possible more so if Nintendo don't sort out their production end of Wii. 360 is gonna be serving the hardcore one hell of an xmas, and I'm glad I'm gonna be party of that.

Wii should do okay though, Mario Galaxy and Metroid 3 will lead the rush, with 360 and Wii cutting up the market between them. PS3 will do well, but I still think Sony have left there price cut too small and too late. With 360 Elite now on shelves, the final nail has been hit. If PS3 doesn't match that £300 price tag soon, it gonna be left with its cheese out in the wind. The clock is ticking.
ozfunghi 30 Aug 2007 20:24
7/19
Oh boy. The Wii is gonna fail? Just like the DS failed after its first year, according to analysts? We all know how that turned out.

It's simple. If Wii sales are really to drop dramatically, they too can do a price cut. Already developers are lining up, even those that shunned the Gamecube (Rockstar?). By the time this analyst is predicting sales to hit a slump, there will be so much more diverse software available. My prediction of Wii going down: never.
Hypnotoad 31 Aug 2007 02:32
8/19
Oh baby! Christmas morning already?? This type of discussion if held not 12 months ago would have been, and come to think of was met with, utter disdain.

I think the most valid point that everyone needs to consider is:
“It's easy to get bored with games like the hit title Wii Sports after just a few times,” Murakami said. “Whether Nintendo can continue to make games that sell well remains a question.”

That is the BOTTOM LINE and so far, Nintendo has fallen utterly short on delivering anything unique or compelling. Someone mentioned earlier that Metroid and Mario were the titles that should satisfy the masses, but what you're forgetting is that the Wii is not a gamer's console. It's a toy, not unlike Hungry Hungry hippos, which was also met with critical sales success for several years. But I digress. The Wii is a console that has been designed for casual pick up and play for the masses. How many of those people, such as the much touted retirement homes and such, are hanging out for the new Metroid? And as far as Mario goes, well, shiggers has decided to dumb it right down, hoping to find a bridge point between these two markets (casual and gamers) which quite frankly does not exist.

Nintendo has always set out to have their cake and eat it to. Their chance of continued success is to embrace this new non-gamer market with something new and gimmicky (something like Wii Fitness) but real 'gamers' need to understand that Nintendo has gone in a new direction that doesn't include them. How many of you felt that Bioshock was sorely missing waggle?

A price drop won't fix any of that, as an earlier poster pointed out, perceived quality & value is lost when you go much lower...I hope Nintendo gets SPANKED in the coming months so they can hit the drawing board with a new system that this time delivers on the promises they made for Wii.
haritori 1 Sep 2007 03:39
9/19
Like your points Hypno, i think most of us didnt read correctly and took it as that due to sony and micrsoft pricecuts that nintendo would feel that, but your right the Wii is becoming a toy and not a console, im very bored of it already infact i have shipped it to the kids room where only occasionally i get it down for me to play, im looking forward to metroid and mario, but those mums and pensioners that nintendo aimed at wont be, infact they have their wii sports and big brain and the `really casual gamer` nintendo is aiming this console at may only buy one or two games a year and because of that, the Wii will be delt with a hard hit, its like the Wii is Xmas 2006`s must have toy, but is it 2007`s and so on and once the casual gamer is happy with his wii sports, and brain training where does the hardcore/regular gamer go. I also agree ninentdo has turned back on the hardcore as it didnt work for them and they are going in a new direction and because of this we are desparatly trying to like the new controls but as you say i didnt think Bioshock was any less for no motion sense, and the main point you made is right, a price drop wont help in the long run. As for Nintendos next console, i dont know what will come but i think they will ride the wii for a long long time just like the Gameboy line, with minor tech upgrades over the years.

OptimusP 1 Sep 2007 11:40
10/19
Good thing Hypno toad talks like a elitist bastard, so by default he's wrong, he only seems right in the eyes of other short-sighted elitist bastards who can't think on iota outside the box.

Bioshock would have been even better with motion control and probably jolted the makers to make better puzzles, actually having good aiming for the console version and a whole lot of other stuff.

So the Wii doesn't have a whole lot of good games...yet. So did the Xbox360 in it's first year, and the DS and the PS3 is in an even worse shape then the Wii. By your logic the PS3 should be dead allready. It's called the firstyearsuckititis every piece of hardware goes trough.

2008 is the year both Wii and PS3 will step up (Wii will feel the effect of all the budgetshiftings inside third parties that went on this year and the PS3 will have the huge first party efforts see kicking in) and the X360 will get the beatings if they don't drop the price in several stages.

The Wii offcourse has the added effect of WiiSport and WiiFit and the reality that hardcore journalists are...well...useless. Wii is in the proces of shattering one structure to set up another one, offcourse you're scared. Others are excited, like me, to the new ways of thinking connected to the new hardware. It's your elitist attitude that will destroy the industry, not Nintendo.

haritori 1 Sep 2007 12:18
11/19
OptimusP wrote:
Good thing Hypno toad talks like a elitist bastard, so by default he's wrong, he only seems right in the eyes of other short-sighted elitist bastards who can't think on iota outside the box.


No optimus this is what we are doing thinking outside the box, Price Cuts dont = Sales and they certainly dont equal great games and more games.

OptimusP wrote:
Bioshock would have been even better with motion control and probably jolted the makers to make better puzzles, actually having good aiming for the console version and a whole lot of other stuff.


So by your deffinition any game thats being made can be made better with motion controls because it will make the Dev work harder on puzzles and aiming etc, what about if they couldnt be bothered and like most Wii ports just added some crappy extras for motion control, and i havent played a FPS on wii with good aiming controls yet.

OptimusP wrote:
So the Wii doesn't have a whole lot of good games...yet. So did the Xbox360 in it's first year, and the DS and the PS3 is in an even worse shape then the Wii. By your logic the PS3 should be dead allready. It's called the firstyearsuckititis every piece of hardware goes trough.


Yes i agree all consoles go throught the software slump, but the Wii does have a lot of good games, just they are getting boring and people want something different Swinging and Waggling is done we need more intuitive controls, and better ideas.

OptimusP wrote:
2008 is the year both Wii and PS3 will step up (Wii will feel the effect of all the budgetshiftings inside third parties that went on this year and the PS3 will have the huge first party efforts see kicking in) and the X360 will get the beatings if they don't drop the price in several stages.


If price is the main factor as you point out here, then if true yes Wii would win hands down, but you contridict yourself because the PS3 being the most expensive would certainly need to drop their price more than the 360 needs to, price is funy too high and it wont sell, too low and it loses value, just right and bucket loads will shift for what you get i feel the Wii is too high, no its not its just not packaged correctly, for the price (which profit is made on each one) there should be two controllers along with 2 Nunchucks, the 360 is priced amazingly great with different options to boot, casuals can go for 360 arcade, followed by regular gamers on premium and elite for the hardcore, PS3 is just too expensive for most to consider, one option at £425.00 with 2 games and 2 controllers its good pack but it should be targetted at £350 max,

OptimusP wrote:
The Wii offcourse has the added effect of WiiSport and WiiFit and the reality that hardcore journalists are...well...useless. Wii is in the proces of shattering one structure to set up another one, offcourse you're scared. Others are excited, like me, to the new ways of thinking connected to the new hardware. It's your elitist attitude that will destroy the industry, not Nintendo.


No one said the Wii wont have good software, or infact doesnt at present the point is the software being made looks fantastic but the demographic nintendo is aiming at is going to hit a wall, its all well and good aiming at a casual gamer but casual means what it says, someone who doesnt play games often, so harware sales may may be huge at present but what will that be like next year when everyones mum and grandad has one, will thoses parents and seniors go out and buy mario kart and smash bros or will they go and buy brain training and wii balance?, so although games for the hardcore will be coming they are being dumb down for the casuals and by effect rejecting the hardcore audience, and by that how many games will sell?, sure the harcore buy mario & zelda franchises, and the casuals buy the casual games, but how many times, will mum be in Game each week buying herself a game or will she pick one up occasionally when her son drags her in and points out that Wii Fit will be what she needs, as for hardcore journalist being usless, maybe Ed. can comment?, the Wii has amazing potential but they need to refocus on there traget audiences(pural) because unliek teh 360 and the PS3 they have more than one, and which ever they choose will be wrong for the Wii, they need to pick all of them.
OptimusP 1 Sep 2007 18:27
12/19
haritori wrote:
No optimus this is what we are doing thinking outside the box, Price Cuts dont = Sales and they certainly dont equal great games and more games.


Wrong, Price drops do = more Sales if only on a short term period. Besides all consoles will need to lower their prices towards the magic 200 euro/dollar mark some time anyway. That's the mass-market mark and the price-drop to that mark has always meant more sales. Sony knows it, MS knows, Nintendo knows it. Nintendo is just in a perfect waiting position while raping in the profits.

haritori wrote:
So by your deffinition any game thats being made can be made better with motion controls because it will make the Dev work harder on puzzles and aiming etc, what about if they couldnt be bothered and like most Wii ports just added some crappy extras for motion control, and i havent played a FPS on wii with good aiming controls yet.


1) wasn't a definition because 2) i think i was talking about Bioshock itself, not in general, so i indirectly was refering to the developer of Bioshock who probably would have been able to create better puzzles and aiming. And also, after Goldeneye and Perfect Dark, i haven't played any good console-FPS either. I do recommend RE4Wii for a good taste on how the Wiimote makes aiming a lot better, but i don't recommend the game if you intend to play RE5...it will ruin the latter (yes it is THAT good)

haritori wrote:
Yes i agree all consoles go throught the software slump, but the Wii does have a lot of good games, just they are getting boring and people want something different Swinging and Waggling is done we need more intuitive controls, and better ideas.


So you are agreeing to my counter-argument but then agreeing on what my counter-argument was aimed at...interesting circle-thinking. And yes, i detest the waggle extra's too, so i don't buy the game who do a crapjob of it. It's just the problem that third parties developers saw the Wii-succes too late, their stockholders went "OMG we don't have any games on the fastest console evah!!!!! WTF!!!!" so the third parties went in 'SHOVELWARE AHOY'-mode (except for, surprisingly, EA) for this year to patch up the bleeding their stockholders have seen while also prepping up new games to come out end of this year or next year. Also...MP3 and Mario Galaxy say hi!

haritori wrote:
If price is the main factor as you point out here, then if true yes Wii would win hands down, but you contridict yourself because the PS3 being the most expensive would certainly need to drop their price more than the 360 needs to, price is funy too high and it wont sell, too low and it loses value, just right and bucket loads will shift for what you get i feel the Wii is too high, no its not its just not packaged correctly, for the price (which profit is made on each one) there should be two controllers along with 2 Nunchucks, the 360 is priced amazingly great with different options to boot, casuals can go for 360 arcade, followed by regular gamers on premium and elite for the hardcore, PS3 is just too expensive for most to consider, one option at £425.00 with 2 games and 2 controllers its good pack but it should be targetted at £350 max


I overdone the need for X360 to pricedrop more, true, and the PS3 needs to do the most pricedropping anyways. But the 360 is still not amazingly priced, it is still too higly priced...from a market perception view...also, there are a lot of hardcore who do not have the money to by a 360 Elite... i don't know how you got this "owh all these different pricepoints is so logical compared to all the gamertypes" reasoning (which is flawed on so many levels, i'll give a hint though...do not use yourself as a central point of reference!)

haritori wrote:
No one said the Wii wont have good software, or infact doesnt at present the point is the software being made looks fantastic but the demographic nintendo is aiming at is going to hit a wall, its all well and good aiming at a casual gamer but casual means what it says, someone who doesnt play games often, so harware sales may may be huge at present but what will that be like next year when everyones mum and grandad has one, will thoses parents and seniors go out and buy mario kart and smash bros or will they go and buy brain training and wii balance?, so although games for the hardcore will be coming they are being dumb down for the casuals and by effect rejecting the hardcore audience, and by that how many games will sell?, sure the harcore buy mario & zelda franchises, and the casuals buy the casual games, but how many times, will mum be in Game each week buying herself a game or will she pick one up occasionally when her son drags her in and points out that Wii Fit will be what she needs, as for hardcore journalist being usless, maybe Ed. can comment?, the Wii has amazing potential but they need to refocus on there traget audiences(pural) because unliek teh 360 and the PS3 they have more than one, and which ever they choose will be wrong for the Wii, they need to pick all of them.


Is Nintendo releasing a casual game every month? Oh look! it isn't! every two months then...Oh no it still isn't! You wouldn't even need a second hand to count all the casual games Nintendo will release this year. That's the genius of Nintendo's strategy, these casual games take like 10 people with 4-6 months time to make (exception being WiiFit), they make millions and millions and can use them to hire more people to make *shock!* hardcore games! Nintendo knows well enough you can't flood the market with casual games...or else we would have had Nintencats/dolphins/hamsters/pusaliens by now. Also, Nintendo has been setting up a outsource program where it just outsource development of these casual games when the series is established. Vision Training is in development at Namco for example.

If anything will make this casual strategy run into the wall, it's the copy-behavior of Microsoft and others to just copy Nintendo's and Sony's concepts instead of creating something new and fresh.

And don't kid yourself...the target audiences for the X360 and PS3 are almost as big as the Wii. It's only that Microsoft can only copy and perfect something someone else created a generation ago and Sony priced itself out of a lot of audiences. Nintendo found the sweetspot, applied some lovely innovation, put it in a practical jacket, created an Apple/iPod-like image for itself towards the masses and bam! Jackpot.

Now I need some TFC damnit.
haritori 1 Sep 2007 20:22
13/19
Ok well we will agree to disagree lol, as i just cant be bothered with the whole quote unquote thing again, but just want to point out im not against the Wii or bias to 360 or PS3 i just starting to have a little buyers remorse for my Wii and find im more entertained by my 360 and My PS3 well thats just gathering dust, but i do hope you right becasue all the promise nintendo made i would like to see.

OptimusP wrote:

Now I need some TFC damnit.


Quite lol
haritori 1 Sep 2007 20:22
14/19
Oops
haritori 1 Sep 2007 20:23
15/19
Oops again
Svend Joscelyne 2 Sep 2007 08:34
16/19
Is Nintendo releasing a game every month? Oh look! it isn't! every two months then...Oh no it still isn't!

Fixed.

Regarding the 'first-year-is-always-crap" argument, it's interesting to note that Nintendo have had a relatively lucky escape, with nobody really having a bad word to say against them about it. Sony, on the other hand, is being shat on in all different directions for having the exact same strategy - releasing no games (or at least no games that anyone cares about). The only difference is the Wii appeals to grannies and is cheaper, ergo more positive press.

Don't get me misunderstood, I have a Wii and am unbiased across all three platforms. But I don't own a PS3, I own a Wii. And it's about time I saw some real action from it. Zelda is about it - but even then that was a Gamecube game (and shockingly I've not even felt compelled to complete Twilight Princess yet). I do have a thing for Sonic and the Secret Rings though, but that's just me.

Yes I'm aware of, and looking forward to, Metroid Prime 3, Mario Galaxy (most colourful looking game I've ever seen, so beautiful) and Smash Brothers Brawl... but after that where are we exactly? If Nintendo have more hardcore offerings in the wings they can't afford to be their classic secret self about it, otherwise it's only going to make their image look worse.
Joji 2 Sep 2007 15:08
17/19
Over the next few months, Wii games are starting to gather pace as its this time of year many release their game. If you want FPS game, keep an eye on MoH Heroes, Brothers In Arms Double Time.

Nitro Bike looks groovy, Trauma Center is out now, Fire Emblem is due soon too. Fifa and Pro Evo 08 coming soon to Wii too.

I don't have a Wii yet, but as soon as Mario Kart Online is due I'll be there. Till then my 360 will do.
Crisko 2 Sep 2007 16:47
18/19
Joji wrote:

I don't have a Wii yet, but as soon as Mario Kart Online is due I'll be there. Till then my 360 will do.


Hello all. First post ever. I was recommended to your fine forums by Majin DBoy. If theres an introductory thread please direct me to it. It's only good etiquette.

I have to agree with previous comments. I think the novelty of the control system has shifted the units off the shelf rather than the games. I know I picked the Wii over the 360 way back in late 2006 with the promise of fresh, innovative games. So far, as previously pointed out the best games on the Wii are Gamecube ports: Twighlight Princess and Resident Evil 4. Mario Kart will be fantastic and I really hope the network is set up to cope with it.

I got myself a 360 about a month ago for the solid 1 player experience it offered. You've done it the right way round Joji: 360 first, Wii later. I think its great to have a Wii with either the 360/PS3 but just the Wii on its own for this year would have been a very dull gaming experience. Things are picking up but at a typical Nintendo pace.
OptimusP 2 Sep 2007 18:44
19/19
I think the lesson we all have to learn is quite frankly: only buy a new console after its a year old, then the fun on the thing really starts

If only we werent such suckers for new hardware, damn you console manufactures!
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