Nolan Bushnell has weighed into the PlayStation 3 debate on the cusp of its launch in the US and Japan, claiming the machine is too expensive and that Sony's inherent management strategy of third-party developer support might see it come unstuck.
Using an ‘F’ word, Bushnell commented to ‘e-biznizz’ magazine,
Red Herring, "I think Sony shot themselves in the foot… there is a high probability [SCEI] will
fail. The price point is probably unsustainable."
Interestingly, the price point might be the thing, combined with limited supply that saves Sony's PlayStation 3 early lifecycle push. If there's one thing everybody wants it's something they cannot have because it's rare. Add the fact that it's also very expensive and a similar set of human emotions are triggered, further upping desire... (the ‘Rarity Assumption’, so now you know).
However, Bushnell, the founder of Atari proper and (although Ralph Baer has debated this... in court) creator of the sensation that was
Pong, believes poorly-maintained developer relations combined with what he sees as an arrogance at the core of SCEI might serve to push publishers towards the Xbox 360. "For years and years Sony has been a very difficult company to deal with from a developer standpoint. They could get away with their arrogance and capriciousness because they had an installed base. They have also historically had horrible software tools. You compare that to the Xbox 360 with really great authoring tools [and] additional revenue streams from Xbox live… a first party developer would be an idiot to develop for Sony first and not the 360."
Of course, this is true. As development costs spiral upwards, publisher risk on a per-title basis is drastically reined in. When a small team could make a game for a couple of million and that game hit the top of the charts, publishers, then buoyed with tech-market capital were able to take a punt on pretty much anything they wanted within reason.
The environment is now completely transformed. Every single major publisher reported dents in their revenues attributed to a smaller than expected Xbox 360 installed bases. Microsoft's user base is now reaching a tenable service point and is continuing to gather users. Meanwhile Sony can only report a diminishing launch number with pledges of large amounts of stock hitting retail before spring seen as somewhat optimistic by many...
However, Sony can take some consolation in the fact that Bushnell is dead wrong about one point, the point he kept for sage and sober impact at the end of the Red Herring piece.
"People don’t buy hardware, they buy software," he said.
Uniquely in the case of Sony, people will invest in hardware that is relatively poorly supported throughout its early lifecycle. The electronics giant and its investors will have to hope this trend continues...