Pachter Watch: Sony and Microsoft Both Right

Michael Pachter finally made SPOnG realise it got into the wrong business. Apparently, to be an analyst, all you need to be able to do is make non-factual, vague and entirely pointless statements that make little to no sense. Pachter, an analyst from Wedbush Morgan, apparently thinks that in their recent spatting Sony Computer Entertainment's CEO, Kaz Hirai, and Microsoft's Aaron Greenberg were both right.

Let's take a closer look. First up: "Aaron Greenberg is right that Sony likely won't catch Microsoft in the U.S. until at least 2014. Kaz is right that Sony will likely catch Microsoft globally", says Pachter.

Now, over to Mr Greenberg for what he actually said: "In fact, even if you doubled the current PS3 sales and Xbox 360 remained flat, they couldn’t close the gap until 2014." (SPOnG's emboldening).

Pachter seems to have missed a point here: Greenberg is indicating that the chances of Sony catching up at all are marginal, not that he expects Sony to do so in that particular year or soon after. Pachter appears to believe that Greenberg is stating that Sony will catch-up by at least 2014.

Let's move on to some actual numbers. Says Pachter, "Please keep in mind that both consoles are offered in North America, Europe and Japan. Sony likely has a 4 million unit lead in Japan, is behind by 7 million in North America, and is behind in Europe by 2 million."

Sorry? Sony "likely" has a four million unit lead in Japan? Did we miss something here, or are we correct in thinking that a) Mr Pachter is paid to know these things and b) Japanese hardware sales figures are made publicly and freely available every week?

Famitsu figures via Kotaku indicate a lead of 1,798,199 - over two million fewer than Pachter said.

Back to Mr Pachter: "My guess..." Whoah! Hold right up! "Guess"? Not even 'estimate'? We know predicting sales is far from a precise science, but if SPOnG's money were on the line we'd hope that we had something more than a "guess" to go on.

Sorry, back to Mr Pachter again: "My guess is that Sony can sell 2 million PS3s per year more than Microsoft in Japan for the next several years, and can catch up in Europe in two or three years. So by the end of 2011, Sony should be even in Europe, ahead by 10 million units in Japan, and behind by a greater margin than 7 million in North America. If the Xbox 360 outsells the PS3 by 1 million units per year for 2009, 2010 and 2011, the two consoles will be in a dead heat by the end of 2011."

Using the actual lead the PS3 has over the Xbox 360 in Japan, Mr Pachter's sums put the PS3 still behind by a little over 2 million units worldwide in 2011.

We'll let Mr Pachter wrap up: "You should note that the 360 outsold the PS3 in the U.S. by 1.2 million units in 2008 (according to NPD), with an average price of $300 compared to an average for PS3 of $418. If PS3 comes down to $299 some time this year, it's likely that the two consoles will sell around the same number of units, with a slight edge to Sony because of Blu-ray. If the 360 price is cut further, Microsoft can likely sustain its advantage, but it may have difficulty selling 1 million more per year."

SPOnG caught up with Michael Spilligan, Senior Entertainment analyst at Nomoru Wahrheit Kennis, who said, "I know Michael's work, and I respect it. I feel confident in saying that, of the two, either the PS3 or the Xbox 360 will have a larger installed base at some point in the future. It really depends on which has sold more units."

Back to Pachter, who finally quipped, "Funny that nobody is talking about catching the Wii..." He's a laugh that Pachter, innee?

^{Source: Game Daily}