Analyst: Owners Dump Wii, Xbox 360 In 2011
Bizarre installed base forecast inside...
Graph from iSuppli
Having gently caressed its crystal balls, research firm iSuppli has released a forecast of Wii, Xbox 360 and PS3 "installed base" over the coming years. As is an analyst's wont, it's the typical platform war fodder that sees PS3 dragging its heels behind both rivals until mastering the 360 in 2010 and the Wii a year later. However, tucked away a the end is something a little odd - the report predicts that come 2011, the Wii and Xbox 360's installed base will mysteriously diminish.
The graph, pictured, shows the Wii a hair's breadth from the 40 million figure for its installed base in 2010, but experience a puzzling drop to around 37.5 million in 2011. Similarly, the 360 hits 33 million in 2010, before shedding around half a million users in 2011. The PS3, meanwhile, just keeps on climbing, amassing an installed base of 38 million - the largest of the three - by 2011.
There are a couple possibilities that spring to mind. One is that the apparently endemic Red Ring of Death takes its ultimate toll while Wii owners' interest in sport and fitness games runs out of steam.
The other, most logical explanation is that 'Installed Base' actually means 'Installed Active User Base', with iSuppli furiously polishing that crystal to predict the rate at which the installed base atrophies as users put the old dog in "storage" and move on to the inevitable next generation. This looks entirely credible given Microsoft and Nintendo's treatment of it's last-gen offerings, with Xbox, Gamecube and N64 effectively forgotten by their makers once next-gen fever took hold or the inevitable was resigned to.
Even giving the analyst the benefit of the doubt, however, there is another glaring problem with iSuppli's figures.
The graph shows Wii sales at 18 million for 2007, which doesn't match the actual figure published for end of 2007. As of December 31st last year, publicly available information showed that the Wii's installed base was in excess of 20 million. SPOnG has contacted iSuppli for clarification on why its figures do not reflect this information.
If you want to read iSupply's predictions for the future, you can find them here.
If you can explain why a market researcher isn't using publicly available information, by all means let us know in the forum.
The graph, pictured, shows the Wii a hair's breadth from the 40 million figure for its installed base in 2010, but experience a puzzling drop to around 37.5 million in 2011. Similarly, the 360 hits 33 million in 2010, before shedding around half a million users in 2011. The PS3, meanwhile, just keeps on climbing, amassing an installed base of 38 million - the largest of the three - by 2011.
There are a couple possibilities that spring to mind. One is that the apparently endemic Red Ring of Death takes its ultimate toll while Wii owners' interest in sport and fitness games runs out of steam.
The other, most logical explanation is that 'Installed Base' actually means 'Installed Active User Base', with iSuppli furiously polishing that crystal to predict the rate at which the installed base atrophies as users put the old dog in "storage" and move on to the inevitable next generation. This looks entirely credible given Microsoft and Nintendo's treatment of it's last-gen offerings, with Xbox, Gamecube and N64 effectively forgotten by their makers once next-gen fever took hold or the inevitable was resigned to.
Even giving the analyst the benefit of the doubt, however, there is another glaring problem with iSuppli's figures.
The graph shows Wii sales at 18 million for 2007, which doesn't match the actual figure published for end of 2007. As of December 31st last year, publicly available information showed that the Wii's installed base was in excess of 20 million. SPOnG has contacted iSuppli for clarification on why its figures do not reflect this information.
If you want to read iSupply's predictions for the future, you can find them here.
If you can explain why a market researcher isn't using publicly available information, by all means let us know in the forum.
Read More Like This
Comments
deleted 15 Feb 2008 20:07
1/7
hmm, this comes a couple of days after analysts state that MS and Nintendo will have new consoles launching in 2010, so by effect if those said consoles, launch at the end of 2010 for xmas, then the active installed user base for the 360 and Wii would drop as early adoptors would take over.
I also think that the 360 and wii would have no need to make there new consoles backwards compatable (with downloading previous gen ebcoming common place, mean there would be a need to keep your old console out should you want but that 1/2 million for 360 and 2.5 million being put into storage seems very right, this also would account for the PS3 figures climbing with sonys (wanted) 10 year life span a PS4 would most likely not appear before 2012 once agin supporting these figures.
but it tends to make these a little misleading in a sense, saying that the PS3 will take over the sales of Wii and 360 and continue storming ahead ito teh future because of course that would happen if MS and Nintendo Launch new consoles and drop support for prev gen while sony continues the PS3 for a little while longer?
I also think that the 360 and wii would have no need to make there new consoles backwards compatable (with downloading previous gen ebcoming common place, mean there would be a need to keep your old console out should you want but that 1/2 million for 360 and 2.5 million being put into storage seems very right, this also would account for the PS3 figures climbing with sonys (wanted) 10 year life span a PS4 would most likely not appear before 2012 once agin supporting these figures.
but it tends to make these a little misleading in a sense, saying that the PS3 will take over the sales of Wii and 360 and continue storming ahead ito teh future because of course that would happen if MS and Nintendo Launch new consoles and drop support for prev gen while sony continues the PS3 for a little while longer?
PreciousRoi 16 Feb 2008 06:12
2/7
Right, Sony is either going to have to abandon the 10-year plan, or get ready to eat dust when the next next gen rolls around.
more comments below our sponsor's message
Daz 17 Feb 2008 16:49
3/7
PreciousRoi wrote:
Right, Sony is either going to have to abandon the 10-year plan, or get ready to eat dust when the next next gen rolls around.
posably, or maybe Sony have some type of Ace up their sleeve, because I don't think they where specific on what they meant by "10 year plan" unless I missed it.
sony 18 Feb 2008 08:42
4/7
sony are going to have to watch their next move in the console market. They have been making desparate mistakes of late.
Bentley 18 Feb 2008 11:29
5/7
I despise these so-called analysts. Do they get paid for sitting around making guesstimates all day? It's utter tripe. Anything can happen and will. Wii sales might stop tomorrow after some kid's arm drops off or something. Microsoft's thinly disguised Satanic veil might fal and so no more 360s are sold as they need to sell 666 million to being about the Apocalypse, and gamers realise they don't really want that, apart from the American ones who keep buying it because it may be Satan, but it is American. Sony might decide to start being transparent, might sack Phil Harrison and actually start delivering a) the truth and b) what they promise to deliver at some point as opposed to silence and arrogance, and thus sell one more PS3 per day.
I'm not saying any of this will happen. But it's so easy to have a wild guess. So can I have £50,000 for doing that please?
What a load of s**t. I said it before and I will continue to say it: there is "anal" in "analyst" for good reason. We might as well all start writing analyst prediction stories under the heading "man has random guess at things that might or might not happen".
Don't think I'm knocking SPOnG; I understand why you have to report these things... but I am knocking all these stupid companies predicting these things. It just seems pointless, because 9 out of 10 things they guess probably won't happen, but it will be the 1/10 that does happen that they will bleat about later and scream how right they were. I just wish the gaming industry would see them for the pointless goons they are amd stop paying them lip service. Thank god that Pachter t**t has been silent fow a while now.
I'm not saying any of this will happen. But it's so easy to have a wild guess. So can I have £50,000 for doing that please?
What a load of s**t. I said it before and I will continue to say it: there is "anal" in "analyst" for good reason. We might as well all start writing analyst prediction stories under the heading "man has random guess at things that might or might not happen".
Don't think I'm knocking SPOnG; I understand why you have to report these things... but I am knocking all these stupid companies predicting these things. It just seems pointless, because 9 out of 10 things they guess probably won't happen, but it will be the 1/10 that does happen that they will bleat about later and scream how right they were. I just wish the gaming industry would see them for the pointless goons they are amd stop paying them lip service. Thank god that Pachter t**t has been silent fow a while now.
deleted 18 Feb 2008 15:20
6/7
LOL, yeah so i am going to bleat about my forcast for 2008 in the forums as a few of those have already come true!.
soanso 18 Feb 2008 21:44
7/7
are these the same analysts who predicted that the Wii would fall flat on it's face or that the PSP would trounce the DS?
How right you lot were about those!
How right you lot were about those!