Gaming analyst Michael Pachter has been running his mouth off again, this time telling us that movie studios will dictate the winner of the next-gen console war. Not only that, but he can tell us exactly the percentage of the market that each console will own.
In his annual industry report Pachter said:
"...we expect the ultimate outcome of the console wars to be decided by the motion picture studios. Should the studios embrace Sony’s Blu-ray standard for high definition DVDs, we think Sony will gain an insurmountable advantage over Microsoft; should the studios embrace Sony rival Toshiba’s HD-DVD format, we think that Microsoft can maintain its first mover advantage and will dominate software sales for years to come."
If he's right, Sony ought to start worrying, what with the Porn industry already being onside with HD-DVD.
Pachter obviously doesn't see the porn as the giant it once was - and it has to be said that people who are still buying it on disc are doing it purely out of nostalgia. It's the PS3 that will win, according to him, although not by a landslide. "Ultimately, we see Sony 'winning' the console war with 36 per cent of the market, with Nintendo capturing second place at 34 per cent and Microsoft finishing third at 30 per cent,” he said. "We believe that this is essentially a dead heat, and each manufacturer will have sufficient market share to generate significant profits."
Pachter also notes that he expects the console life-span to extend this generation, stating, "In our view, the economics of game development and the tremendous capital required to produce the consoles will virtually compel all constituents to milk the next generation for all that it's worth."
There's one x-factor that could come and scupper Pachter's premonitions,"We believe that a wildcard for next-generation console sales will be the hardware manufacturers' ability either to develop content internally or to secure third-party commitment for software designed exclusively for a single platform,"
That said, third-party exclusives will be a bit elusive thanks to “the economics of game development,” according to Pachter. "We believe that the Xbox 360 and the PS3 are far more similar than their predecessors were," he opines, "and believe that the economics of game development will serve as a disincentive to third-party publishers to offer exclusive content for either console."
He certainly has a point there. Phil Harrison has already spoken out about the PS3's inability to hold GTA IV as an exclusive
, and few next-gen exclusives are on the horizon.
Pachter is hands-down SPOnG's favourite analyst. If he's not stating the bloody obvious he's making wild proclamations that the PS3 will shed £125 from its price tag within a year.
Does gaming hang by the movie industry's whim? Answers in the Forum please.