Sony to sell 200 million PS3s
Plus pigs also to fly, according to Business Week magazine
Market research this month by recognised authority Business Week magazine estimated that Sony PlayStation 3 sales will be topping the two hundred million units mark within the next five years. The first twelve million of these are estimated to come in the first year after the consoles release this coming Spring.
To just make this clear – this estimate is over twice the amount of PS2 units which have been sold in the last five years.
SPOnG wants to wait to see how the initial launch of the PS3 fares throughout 2006, before we feel that we can authoritatively comment on such bold claims for the console. The Business Week figures are based on the assumption that videogaming will continue to become more popular and mainstream at an exponential rate over the next five years.
Whilst SPOnG hopes that this is the case, we would currently urge industry analysts to be a little more conservative in their projections, in light of this Christmas’ fairly slow sales of games software and hardware. The idea that the market for console videogames will double worldwide over the next five years just seems a little too overoptimistic in our opinion. But perhaps that’s because we’ve eaten too much turkey and drank too much European fighting lager in the last three days to be in any fit state to offer a reasonable comment on Business Week’s projections.
In the other next-gen camp, Microsoft hit back with the even more unbelievable assertion that they plan to reach a billion consumers via their Xbox 360. Again, SPOnG urges a more conservative approach and thinks that we should perhaps wait to see if our friends at the American Uber-Corp can get out the three million Xbox 360s which was their target for the first three months post-launch. We'll be sure to come back to this at the end of February to see how close they are to that target.
To just make this clear – this estimate is over twice the amount of PS2 units which have been sold in the last five years.
SPOnG wants to wait to see how the initial launch of the PS3 fares throughout 2006, before we feel that we can authoritatively comment on such bold claims for the console. The Business Week figures are based on the assumption that videogaming will continue to become more popular and mainstream at an exponential rate over the next five years.
Whilst SPOnG hopes that this is the case, we would currently urge industry analysts to be a little more conservative in their projections, in light of this Christmas’ fairly slow sales of games software and hardware. The idea that the market for console videogames will double worldwide over the next five years just seems a little too overoptimistic in our opinion. But perhaps that’s because we’ve eaten too much turkey and drank too much European fighting lager in the last three days to be in any fit state to offer a reasonable comment on Business Week’s projections.
In the other next-gen camp, Microsoft hit back with the even more unbelievable assertion that they plan to reach a billion consumers via their Xbox 360. Again, SPOnG urges a more conservative approach and thinks that we should perhaps wait to see if our friends at the American Uber-Corp can get out the three million Xbox 360s which was their target for the first three months post-launch. We'll be sure to come back to this at the end of February to see how close they are to that target.
Read More Like This
Comments
Greg2k 27 Dec 2005 19:04
1/8
I'm pretty sure Sony wouldn't want to sell those many machines. The loss margin is so high it would kill the company.
wanderingsoul 27 Dec 2005 19:15
2/8
Even then, just think of how long it took PS2 to reach 5 million, even without competitors! This is ludicrous if you ask me. The number of gamers has leveled off in recent years. You cant just double the amount of gamers who want a playstation brand console over night.
And just looking at it, there is a larger rift than ever in the gaming community. N. Americans and Europeans are very content with Xbox360, but the Japanese are not. This has become a battle of east vs. west in some respects, so PS3 won't have the same advantages PS2 had. But even so, stiffer competition and a later release date has generally nullified any number above 125 million.
And just looking at it, there is a larger rift than ever in the gaming community. N. Americans and Europeans are very content with Xbox360, but the Japanese are not. This has become a battle of east vs. west in some respects, so PS3 won't have the same advantages PS2 had. But even so, stiffer competition and a later release date has generally nullified any number above 125 million.
more comments below our sponsor's message
realvictory 28 Dec 2005 00:47
3/8
I think the amount of people who buy something hasn't got to do with how good it is, or what it does, but how it does what it does.
The Xbox 360 looks like it's the same philosophy as previous games consoles so it's aiming at the same market.
The PS3 might really be a super-computer in your house, and if it's easier to use than a PC as well, it might be able to sell even more.
Although, if it's one per family as opposed to one per person, it will probably sell fewer than the PS2.
Even so, I'm so hyped up about the PS3 now, that I'm working overtime on sub-minimum wage at my local fast food restaurant to save up to buy maybe half a PS3! Then if I sell my kidney on ebay, I should make up the difference. Remortgaging my house will get me a couple of games, then I'm sorted! But a PS3 will be better than a house and a kidney!
The other thing is, why would the average human being give a s**t about a Microsoft games console, enough to make 1 billion people buy one! About three-quarters of "gamers" don't, so that's probably about 1 in every 50 people or something, let alone 1 in 6. Hold on, I have the answer - associate XBox 360 with Live Aid! Heh...
The Xbox 360 looks like it's the same philosophy as previous games consoles so it's aiming at the same market.
The PS3 might really be a super-computer in your house, and if it's easier to use than a PC as well, it might be able to sell even more.
Although, if it's one per family as opposed to one per person, it will probably sell fewer than the PS2.
Even so, I'm so hyped up about the PS3 now, that I'm working overtime on sub-minimum wage at my local fast food restaurant to save up to buy maybe half a PS3! Then if I sell my kidney on ebay, I should make up the difference. Remortgaging my house will get me a couple of games, then I'm sorted! But a PS3 will be better than a house and a kidney!
The other thing is, why would the average human being give a s**t about a Microsoft games console, enough to make 1 billion people buy one! About three-quarters of "gamers" don't, so that's probably about 1 in every 50 people or something, let alone 1 in 6. Hold on, I have the answer - associate XBox 360 with Live Aid! Heh...
soanso 28 Dec 2005 01:06
4/8
In my humble opinion, and using my expertise of being an analyst of the bottom of empty glasses rather than of electrical hardware.
I think it would be wildly optimistic to predict that amount of sale for PS3.
Why?
well for starters it doesn't sound like it is going to be cheap. I expect it to have a high price to to keep a high price for quite a long time.
And second. The reason that I think PS2 sold so well, Was that it coincided with the boom of dvd sales. I cannot see the same happen with HD-dvds or whatever format it is that Sony use (see I can't even remember the name of it, there's too many formats now!!!!)
I reckon a lot of ps2 owners will upgrade to the new system but even if all of them bought it. it would still not sell 200million. For that you are going to have to sell it to new customers, new players, and to the people who didn't buy a psone or xbox or gamecube.
Since ps3 has some pretty damn good looking oposition this time and isn't riding on the crest of a wave........it won't happen.
Wel. I doubt it anyways.
I think it would be wildly optimistic to predict that amount of sale for PS3.
Why?
well for starters it doesn't sound like it is going to be cheap. I expect it to have a high price to to keep a high price for quite a long time.
And second. The reason that I think PS2 sold so well, Was that it coincided with the boom of dvd sales. I cannot see the same happen with HD-dvds or whatever format it is that Sony use (see I can't even remember the name of it, there's too many formats now!!!!)
I reckon a lot of ps2 owners will upgrade to the new system but even if all of them bought it. it would still not sell 200million. For that you are going to have to sell it to new customers, new players, and to the people who didn't buy a psone or xbox or gamecube.
Since ps3 has some pretty damn good looking oposition this time and isn't riding on the crest of a wave........it won't happen.
Wel. I doubt it anyways.
DoctorDee 28 Dec 2005 08:16
5/8
One suspects that Business Week's claims might be influenced (and possibly unduly so) by considering the emerging markets.
India and China have played effectively no part in the success of PS1 and PS2. But they could concievably become significant purchasers of PS3. With a population well in excess of one billion, China could theoretically double sales of PlayStation, but it is unblikely to do so in reality.
but remember, China plans to have a national digital broadcasting system in place by 2010, and digital technologies in all forms are currently very 'hot' over there. Plus, they will all be wanting a PS3 so they can play the dissident tank-crush event in the Beijing 2008 Olympic computer game.
India and China have played effectively no part in the success of PS1 and PS2. But they could concievably become significant purchasers of PS3. With a population well in excess of one billion, China could theoretically double sales of PlayStation, but it is unblikely to do so in reality.
but remember, China plans to have a national digital broadcasting system in place by 2010, and digital technologies in all forms are currently very 'hot' over there. Plus, they will all be wanting a PS3 so they can play the dissident tank-crush event in the Beijing 2008 Olympic computer game.
crs117 28 Dec 2005 18:55
6/8
realvictory wrote:
I think the amount of people who buy something hasn't got to do with how good it is, or what it does, but how it does what it does.
The Xbox 360 looks like it's the same philosophy as previous games consoles so it's aiming at the same market.
The PS3 might really be a super-computer in your house, and if it's easier to use than a PC as well, it might be able to sell even more.
The Xbox 360 looks like it's the same philosophy as previous games consoles so it's aiming at the same market.
The PS3 might really be a super-computer in your house, and if it's easier to use than a PC as well, it might be able to sell even more.
Are you serious? Sony talks this talk but never follows through. The ps2 was supposed to be this big media hub from which everything and everybody would connect to...yeah that really happened. It was supposed to be the gaming super computer, and yet it really was quite humiliated by the xbox and gcn graphically.
So sony is playing the propaganda card again claiming all of this super functionality of the ps3 and we still have no clue as to when the console is actually coming out (probly last in november at earliest), or how much it will cost ($400 yeah right).
MS on the other hand is not trying to create a media center hub out of the xbox 360 but making it the client. I am right now able to listen to my entire music collection off of my computer while playing pgr3 on my xbox 360. I am able to view all of my pictures and as soon as i get my latest ctp beta of vista (msdn developer), I am going to be able to watch movies straight off of my PC on my x360.
All this to say...Sony is talking the big talk but MS is actually doing it...for cheaper. A large % of folks that will purchase an x360 will already have a computer with their music and media already on it...why make the consumer have move everything to the ps3 formats (re-convert music, movies, etc) when you can stream it off your current computer.
Good luck with your ps3 vaporware.
Christian
fluffstardx 28 Dec 2005 19:20
7/8
I too have massive doubts over the success of its use as a PC. You can now get a PC from Dell for £299. PS3 will cost more. You can (ok, only just...) upgrade a Dell PC. It runs on an OS everyone understands and knows - Windows. It has the ease and familiarity of keyboard and mouse. Replacement parts are available in just about every town centre ever.
PS3 will be Linux. Linux is notorious as being the "nerd OS". It's an ass in many of its guises, bar Knoppix - which I have a copy of for when the PC go ping. The keyboard and mouse will, in all likelyhood, need to be officially Sony. Has anyone else experiencced Dreamcast Keyboard Syndrome? So many were got rid of and deemed useless they were in tips everywhere. You couldn't get rid for love nor money.
Oh, and did I mention you'll in all likelyhood have to pay EXTRA for these functions? So, that's £4-500 (Sony PR quote) for the system, probably £100+ for the HDD, KB, mouse combi. For the same price, you can have your Dell AND a 360! Heck, if the PC has Media Centre, you're all set!
PS3 will be Linux. Linux is notorious as being the "nerd OS". It's an ass in many of its guises, bar Knoppix - which I have a copy of for when the PC go ping. The keyboard and mouse will, in all likelyhood, need to be officially Sony. Has anyone else experiencced Dreamcast Keyboard Syndrome? So many were got rid of and deemed useless they were in tips everywhere. You couldn't get rid for love nor money.
Oh, and did I mention you'll in all likelyhood have to pay EXTRA for these functions? So, that's £4-500 (Sony PR quote) for the system, probably £100+ for the HDD, KB, mouse combi. For the same price, you can have your Dell AND a 360! Heck, if the PC has Media Centre, you're all set!
jodo4 29 Dec 2005 02:35
8/8
wow, seeing how the ps3 is spoken of here I guess it won't even make it to the 50 million point, and thats fine with me. You could probably get a Dell, a 360 AND a revolution with games for all three to spare money on instead of a PS3 alone, and throw in the two 61 inch LCD/Plasma screens that it can use at once..... I expect the PS3 price to be higher than JUST $400-$500 alone.