CES Fallout: Sony expected to herald "next gen 1.5"

lol, if you think that I am pro-Sony and anti-Microsoft, thane_jaw, you are wrong, i dislike them both. What I hate about them both is that they are big corparations with an almost inexhaustible money fund and the fact that they think they can bully customers into purchasing overpriced products due to their 'brand' name. I simply chose Microsoft over Sony because, frankly, Microsoft have had a worse track record than Sony about lying and muscling out the competition with money.

They're probably waiting for any AAA title to be ready
while following Nintendo's and MS's ambitious global launch happiness.If Sony as a whole is now relying on PS brand It's allright cause it's bound to be very good...
a good close fight it will be

Wonder what impact this'll have on Revolution, and what if they launch simultaneously!!?(hope not)lol

I know what you mean sQuashEd. I do feel that Microsoft has the slightly more healthy attitude going into this (Moore saying competition is good for one, a far cry from the Borg like mentality most people attribute to MS) and I've heard nothing from sony that'd make me want to get a ps3 (although to be fair I'm wavering over whether I need to get a 360, I've had my pre-order since the summer but I'm not sure whether getting it now justifies the cost. Plus I'm pretty pissed I still haven't got one and gamestop is trying to fob me off with a core system. I'm thinking about waiting until they iron out all the bugs with the hardware in the 2nd/3rd batch or even getting a revolution).

Even though it may hurt them in the long run I think the decision to make HD-DVD optional with the 360, keeping the costs down and allowing expansion if wanted later on was smart. I don't see why there's this need to race towards bigger as it doesn't always mean better. Sony throwing in a bluray player just seems rather shortsighted cost wise. Remember how cds were meant to get cheaper then tapes? I know you have to factor in inflation, but it seems like you really have to do a lot of digging to pay a decent price for a cd. I'm worried that next gen dvd's will retail for over £20 (like those umd movies for the psp) when we're not going to be getting too much more aside from, admittedly, fantastic resolution.

A couple of general points I'd like to pick up on.

The differences between hardware in the PS3, 360 and Rev will mostly be taken up by the middleware companies. This may mean that for a while EA may have the "best" multi-platform games technically due to owning RenderWare.

Also, the success or failure of Blu-Ray as a movie and data format will have no effect on PS3. Before PS1/Saturn/CD32 every games console and lots since have had a proprietary format for games, no reason why Sony can't go ahead with Blu-Ray as the PS3's game format. It won't cost any more per disc because the duplication plants won't be tied up with movie discs.

This is just measuring floating point multiplys and NOTHING else! The Cell has half the cache size of the Xenon and one general purpose core compared to Xenon's three. In addition to this the Cell's single core has to traffic any data the APUs might need in and out of main memory.



That last-minute decision to bolt in a stock 78000 ("RSX" indeed) has killed the PS3's design. Splitting up system and graphics RAM mean any procedural geometry has to be shuttled from system RAM to graphics RAM like a PC. the "fast" memory is only available from the GPU and Xenos more than compensates for this with the benefit of unified 512MB that can be chopped any way you like and 10MB of intelligent RAM that lives right on the GPU and provides anti-aliasing for free.

Trust me, if the PS3 had anything but embarrasing jaggy slideshows running Sony would have shown it at CES just to spoil 360 momentum. They're going to have to s**t or get off the pot at E3, and Sony fanbois are in for a RUDE awakening.

Well GFLOPS are a reasonable estimate of processing power, used all over the place. Given the similarity of the Cell PPE and the Xenon cores and the identical clock speeds of both CPUs, it's not a bad representation of power.


Not as far as I can see. In the first diagram in this paper from IBM you can see that the SPEs and the PPE have access to the on-chip memory bus (EIB) which is connected to the memory controller (MIC) that governs access to the main memory.

Also there is a paragraph lower down that describes the SPEs' access to memory

Which indicates that the SPE has a memory access module that can directly access main memory. Plus each SPE has that 128-entry register file, the same sort of local memory the Xenon's vector units have access to.

I don't think there will be as much of a problem with caching of data or instructions on Cell as there is with more traditional CPUs. I admit, I'm not an expert, but it does all look good to me.


The RSX is faster than a 78000GTX, and I quote Wikipedia's PS3 page (tempting config's wrath once more).

So, similar inner workings and faster than a 78000GTX? Sounds better to me.


Both memory blocks on the PS3 are accessible by the GPU and the system memory (XDR DRAM) is clocked at a higher rate than the GDDR VRAM. Looks like the RSX has access to as much memory as Xenos and all at the same clock speed or higher. Don't see a problem myself.


Microsoft were never going to make much of a noise at CES with 360, it's too soon after the launch. They'd just be drawing attention to the supply shortages and woeful Japanese launch if they did. They had to dredge up plans for an external HD-DVD drive to make any announcement at all.

CES for Sony was about Blu-Ray and everything else they do other than SCEE. I'm betting on a grand roll-out of PS3 at E3 this year. Slightly delayed launch (May could still be considered Spring though) and a big showing, rather than dev kit demos at CES.

This also ties in to the idea that Sony are going to say that 360 is only a half-generation jump and the true Next Gen starts with PS3.

Blu-Ray's success or failure will take a toll on PS3. Yes, they can just go back to DVD's for there games if the technology doesn't take off or takes longer to get off the ground but the cost of the drive in the system will impact Sony & the consumer in price. There really is no way around that one.

Blu-Ray players are starting at around $1800(Suggested retail price), so figure between maybe $1000 or so for just a player at first. Maybe mid $800's but we are still just talking about the player and not an actual game system.

The media industry has said that Blu-Ray or even HD-DVD won't be mainstream till early 2008-2009, same as for having a HDTV in most households by then. That is a gap of time and something everyone has to consider no matter how hard companys are pushing either technology in the consumer face right now.

General consumer heads are still spinning with the HDTV's and LCD's and Plasma TV's out there right now and what to buy for the long term.

It just seems Sony, Apple, Microsoft and some of the others are riding this new technology to hard and putting it into a console almost at the sametime as the media players themselves will be coming out, to me anyway, is pushing to much.

That's exactly what I'm arguing won't happen. If Blu-Ray doesn't become a standard for movies and data then Sony can still keep Blu-Ray as the PS3's game format. They don't need to go back to using DVDs, it'll only piss off the devs who want to use more space than a DVD-9 will give them.


There is a huge difference between the cost of a full-functional movie player and the drive that would be fitted in a console. Think closer to buying a new optical drive for your PC, only without the margins because Sony are producing the drive themselves. Estimates I've seen for the cost to Sony for the Blu-Ray drive in a PS3 put it at $100.

The reason the Blu-Ray players will be so expensive at launch is to cover R&D or licensing costs as quickly as possible. All hardware except consoles comes in priced very high because early adopters will pay that price to have the next cool item first. Prices will come down as production costs come down and R&D costs are covered.

Remember when you had to pay $500 for a DVD player? I bought my first DVD player in Nov 1999 and paid £254 online. That's $448 with today's conversion rates.

The media or disc I shoudl say still will cost between $20-$40 a disc at first just for a blank. So developers cost will go up even if it's a slight markup in cost but then they will also be hard pressed to develop games that use the capacity of a Blu-Ray disc or it will be a waist. So then comes the question of cost of games? Microsoft has already step forward and started the price raise by $10 just on a standard DVD. Is the price justified? That is another debate people can get into if they want but I'll leave that for them.

Sony will have there own Blu-Ray drives made by them for the PS3 which will help drive cost down for the new technology but they still will also be able to play movies as well and Sony will want to cash in on that end of the market to, ie: UMD disc for PSP right now. Just like when PS2 came out and it was $350 at first and was DVD format. It reflected the markets pricing and development at the time. Though cheaper in most standards since you were getting a game console and dvd player, it still was priced high for just a "game console" at the time.

They have been quoted twice now as saying the system will be expensive, though a "vague meaning", I'm sure they aren't just saying that to impress or scare people for the heck of it. I know it's not just the Blu-Ray that will make the system costly but still a factor in the whole scheme of things.

My whole thing is that Sony has partnershiped with fellow media companies on this idea and all are in it for profit as well as new technology. In the end, we will pay for it and I would like to know, as a consumer, what I'm getting into or have more information then what's out there right now before really making any decision or debate for that matter.

We all are basing our words on what has been seen on paper still, not on what is out there for us to get our hands on and see.

Well according to the Blu-ray Disc Association themselves, initial production costs of Blu-ray discs will only be 10% higher than those of DVDs. And according to the first DVD duplication house I found using Google, DVD duplication costs (which should include buying the raw media) are £3.50 each for volumes of 500 discs. Games publishers are sure to want more than 500 discs per run, but lets go with that figure and lets assume that the price won't go up for the duplication process. It looks like Blu-ray discs will cost £3.85 each to duplicate initially, costs are sure to come down as production processes are refined. For those of you working in USD, those figures are $6.16 for DVD and $6.78 for a Blu-ray disc.


Of course there will be an increase in the cost of games, there is the "big new thing" factor and the fact that developers should be spending more time producing higher resolution textures than for the current generation games. But I don't think the cost of the media (the discs) will increase the cost of the game by much.


I agree with this, but I see a lot of people just quoting the "common wisdom" without doing any research. I try to base my estimates and opinions on the facts that I can find. I'm always open to opinions that are based on better research than I have done, but do try and quote sources when you make assertions like the disc price above.

Ok, well here you go. I was basing my numbers on my findings from Google searches and sites:

50GB Rewritable Blank Blu-Ray Disk to Cost $60
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"A leading maker of consumer electronics, Panasonic, announced plans to ship blank Blu-ray disk media to the United States in spring 2006. The company will supply recordable and rewritable single-layer and dual-layer discs targeting customers seeking for high-capacity removable storage solutions.

Panasonic will ship four types of Blu-ray discs to the U.S. this year: recordable 25GB single-layer and 50GB dual-layer discs for $17.99 and $42.99 respectively as well as rewritable 25GB and 50GB discs for $24.99 and $59.99 respectively. The blank media can be used with Blu-ray disc burners at the speed of up to 2x and then read by consumer electronics or personal computer equipment capable of Blu-ray discs playback.

Panasonic said its Blu-ray discs employ a number of exclusive technologies developed by the company, which, in addition to time and money required for research and development, also involved usage of production equipment not utilised previously, which are one of the main reasons why the discs cost significantly more compared to typical DVDs and HD DVDs. Still, such price premium is unlikely to be effective for long – Sony, the main driving force behind the Blu-ray – said that in case of mass production the significant price differences between the Blu-ray and other types of media would erode quickly.

The company indicated that it uses developed in-house highly sensitive and durable recording film for rewritable discs and inorganic material which is unaffected by light is utilized for recordable discs. Panasonic BD discs also use an advanced spin coating process technology to form the cover layer with extremely uniform thickness, furthermore, newly-developed surface-treatment technology enables a significant boost in disc resistance to scratches and abrasions, ensuring high reliability and durability, according to the manufacturer.

Panasonic is expected to unveil its Blu-ray disc burners for personal computers (PCs) in the first quarter of 2006, whereas the consumer players are likely to emerge in Q2. "
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And just for the fact that Sony stated it's own use of there disc version to be cheaper in production and make:

From Blu-ray.com
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"As with any new technology the first generation of products will likely be quite expensive due to low production volumes. However, this shouldn't be a problem for long as there is a wide range of Blu-ray Disc products (players, recorders, drives, writers, media, etc) planned, which should help drive up production volumes and lower overall production costs. Once mass production of components for Blu-ray products begins the prices are expected to fall quickly.

According to the Blu-ray Disc Association, the overall cost of manufacturing Blu-ray Disc media will in the end be no more expensive than producing a DVD. The reduced injection molding costs (one molding machine instead of two, no birefringence problems) offset the additional cost of applying the cover layer and low cost hard-coat, while the techniques used for applying the recording layer remain the same. As production volumes increase the production costs should fall and eventually be comparable to DVDs. "
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So price cost will drop but not right out the door. I might not put in the exact place I get or read my information but that's only because on other boards people know I'm not one for pulling things out of thin air. So I apologize for not putting up the links or info I got it from since I'm new to this board and enjoy the conversations I'm having so far. I also like to do my research to since this is something I'm interested in and want to know where it is going since I'm also in the gaming industry myself.

Sony will have lower end cost to produce the discs, you are right on that, just as Microsoft will on certain hardware they use in the 360 and even the HD-DVD format disc scenario, but they are one of the biggest manufactuers of blu-ray but that doesn't mean it will turn out to be cheaper for us, the consumer, in the begining. As we both have said, it is new technology and if anything the past has shown us, new technology doesn't come cheap at first.

And for a final bit of info for HD-DVD & Blu-Ray players and some interesting information that the PS3 looks like it will come out with the blu-ray drive before even the regular players are out in the market, from Yahoo news:

CES: Blu-ray Disc launch to lag HD-DVD by 3 months
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The first players supporting the high-definition Blu-ray Disc format appear likely to lag those for the competing HD-DVD format by at least three months, according to announcements and predictions made in Las Vegas on Wednesday at the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES).
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Toshiba Corp., which backs the HD-DVD format, said at a news conference that it will launch two players in the U.S. in March, priced at US$500 and $800. Sanyo Electric Co. Ltd. is planning to launch a player in the latter half of this year although that will be acquired from another company as an OEM product, Sanyo representatives said Wednesday.

On the Blu-ray Disc side the format’s strongest supporter, Sony Corp (NYSE:SNE - news)., unveiled its latest prototypes and said it plans to launch a player in North America in the “early summer” this year but it stopped short of providing a price estimate. Sharp Corp. said it will wait until at least the middle of the year to launch a player and Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. Ltd. (Panasonic) estimated it would launch a player in the middle of this year. Koninklijke Philips Electronics NV said it will launch a player in the second half of this year. None of the companies would talk about pricing.

One Blu-ray Disc backer that did disclose pricing was Pioneer Corp. It will launch a player under its Pioneer Elite brand in the U.S. in June this year, at a price of $1,800 .

More details of Blu-ray Disc launch plans could come Thursday night when the Blu-ray Disc Association is scheduled to hold a news conference.

With most companies indicating a launch in the latter half of the year, the role that Sony Computer Entertainment Inc.’s (SCEI) PlayStation 3 could play in popularizing the format becomes more interesting. The PlayStation 3 will contain a Blu-ray Disc drive.

SCEI confirmed Wednesday that it plans to launch the PlayStation 3 in the “spring” of this year. That means the PlayStation 3, which offers high-definition video playback, could come out before players from major consumer electronics vendors. As such, the industry is waiting with interest to find out the launch date and price for the games console.
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Okay, I'll stop you there.

The figures quoted are for media used in an end-user Blu-ray writer - the drive that sits in your PC.

The process used at duplication plants is a vastly one to that used with BR R/W drives, just as it is with CD/DVD R/W drives. Can you imagine the amount of time it would take to dupe a million copies of a music CD if the plants had to write a every CD on sale at 52x ?

No, CD/DVD/BR ROMs are "pressed", therefore the blank media is wildly different, in terms fo both technology and cost, to thosed used for "burning"

Don't you recall how expensive CDRs were when the first burners came to market in the 90s? There was no correlation with with end-user blank media and dupe plant media, and the remains the with Blu-ray.

As for the second piece from Bluray.com; yes, the price will drop once the media become more popular, but it's going to be dropping from $6 per disc (and that's on a short run), not $60!

Oh sorry! I thought we were talking about the costs for games on Blu-ray. The writable or re-writable media for use in consumer or data storage applications will be very high, you only have to look at the costs of CD-RW and DVD-RW discs when they came out to see that.

The costs of consumer media will have no bearing on the costs for games publishers to have un-changeable Blu-ray discs manufactured.


Yeah, I was going to use that quote from Blu-ray.com, but I couldn't find it on the official site (www.Blu-rayDisc.com) to have a more solid source.

Again, that quote is dealing with mass production costs, not the costs of consumer media at PC World.


Well, we don't all frequent the same boards, so we don't all know each other's reputations. Most people here would probably note that I usually do research too, but I still post links and quotes when I'm using other people's websites as sources for my own assertions.

Glad you are enjoying the conversations here, we try to avoid the fanboy rants of other sites.

It's true that the players will be expensive, I've seen $1,800 quoted for some models shown at CES, and the consumer media will also be expensive. However, the costs to the public have very little to do with the costs to industry. And it's those costs to the industry that will drive the cost of games and the PS3.

You are 100% right but I am a end-user and that type of information would matter to me for a few reasons. It gives everyone a general concept of how much this new technology is going to cost the consumer if they want to use it in the begining. Also, for that drive that would sit in a PC, it also asks the question then of how much would just a reader cost for someone that just wants to play a game or watch a movie on there PC.

Now that same drive that is just a reader but being put into a console will still reflect the current markets pricing and cost for the technology on the consumer end and will still cost us more. I'm looking at this from my end of the scope, consumer, just as I am with HD-DVD as well. We pay more for the new toys/technology and a article such as that gives something of a glimpse into what's ahead but doesn't mean it's in stone or can't change by the time all of the companies figure out everything.

That we agree on. Consumer side is different from industry side and at the end of the day, they are the ones that will decide how much it will be coming out of our wallet for the PS3 to a movie player to a PC drive. As the saying goes, time will tell...

Hang about, weren't we just talking about the cost of mass production blank media - that borne by the publisher?

Nevertheless, while we're at it, let's run with the cusomer costs...

When CDR first kicked off we were looking at about £5 ($9) per blank. For CDRW it was about £10 ($18) and DVDRW about £15 ($26). These aren't accurate figures, just what we've been recalling around the office.

Look at those DVD prices - not a million miles from the $17.99 and $24.99 for the respective 25Gb Blu-ray R and RW prices.

Now, if the consumer doesn't want to bear those costs, just stick with your PC's DVD drive and burn a damn DVD! I can't think of many people who, outside of work, either need more than four gigs or can't split their work over several 4Gb discs.

So, yes, this gives everyone a concept of how much the Blue-ray tech is going to cost everyone; for 25Gb it's about the same as DVD when it was new, and to burn 50gigs of data you pay a premium ... just like everyone did when they wanted to burn a 4Gb DVD instead of a 700Mb CD. You pay for that huge leap in storage on a new media - it's the way it's always been.

And if you don't need/want 25Gb+ of storage on a single disc, it's not going to cost you a penny more than the drive that's already nestling in the front of your PC.

Couldn't agree more Thane, it's all about the games. With out them we'd not be here debating the boring spec of hardware.

Come on people, it's true specs are boring. Regardless of format, I just wanna see which developers are gonna put their nuts on the table and push us something good.

Don't much care what's in each box, but what comes out of each, after I've spent hard earned money on each.

remind me to never attempt to visualize anything you say ever again... *shudders*

_____

You made me output a proper, hearty LOL!

Indeed, I think it should be noted that the $1,800 price tag for a blu-ray player was a high end consumer model. Whilst certainly indicative of the format's higher pricing then the current generation of dvd, i think its also part of panasonics' elite range (sorry no time to do proper research) which has notably higher prices then normal for consumer end products (including DVD drives, I think i saw a quote for their current dvd player as being $600 or something crazy like that). Certainly everything shown recently is for first adopters, people who are willing to pay over the odds for unproven technology (with everything, rich people who don't have the time to research their gadgets properly).

As deadman's theory notes there are currently plans for more reasonably priced players at $500 and $800. Whether we in the uk will get a comparative price has yet to be shown.