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Everybody loves a financial analyst and deeply respects their opinions. After all, they are not paid to lead us to economic extinction. So, we were keen to hear what Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia had to say in his recent note about the PlayStation 3.
He says, "industry sources indicate Sony is planning a $100 price cut on the PS3 in mid-August, just prior the launch of Madden and the start of the back to school shopping season. This will naturally be a positive for the industry".
So, Sony will tie the price cut that it has long denied it's going to make to the US football management game. Sure, why not?
Let's have a look at some more of Arvind's gaming predictions:
From September 2008: Ubisoft a target for EA acquisition. "It should be noted that [EA] currently owns approximately 19 percent of Ubisoft ... and we feel the likelihood of a full acquisition (of Ubi by EA) is now higher given the termination of discussions with Take-Two."
Okay, so deals take some time to happen, and that prediction was only made nine months ago.
What about... a PlayStation 3 price cut from March this year? "Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia has issued his own report... a $100 price drop between April and June."
Right, the price cut is/was going to occur in April, May, June and now mid-August (anybody betting on July?).
Let's give some credit though, in March Bhatia also said that "PS2 will get a $30 price cut starting April 1, bringing the console down to the magic $99 price point". He was right on the button on that one.
We'll keep waiting.
He says, "industry sources indicate Sony is planning a $100 price cut on the PS3 in mid-August, just prior the launch of Madden and the start of the back to school shopping season. This will naturally be a positive for the industry".
So, Sony will tie the price cut that it has long denied it's going to make to the US football management game. Sure, why not?
Let's have a look at some more of Arvind's gaming predictions:
From September 2008: Ubisoft a target for EA acquisition. "It should be noted that [EA] currently owns approximately 19 percent of Ubisoft ... and we feel the likelihood of a full acquisition (of Ubi by EA) is now higher given the termination of discussions with Take-Two."
Okay, so deals take some time to happen, and that prediction was only made nine months ago.
What about... a PlayStation 3 price cut from March this year? "Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia has issued his own report... a $100 price drop between April and June."
Right, the price cut is/was going to occur in April, May, June and now mid-August (anybody betting on July?).
Let's give some credit though, in March Bhatia also said that "PS2 will get a $30 price cut starting April 1, bringing the console down to the magic $99 price point". He was right on the button on that one.
We'll keep waiting.
Companies:
Sony
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Comments
DoctorDee 9 Jun 2009 10:03
1/8
Madden games sell over 2,000,000 copies in week one of sales. A price cut times for the next Madden 10 release would not be too dumb a move.
OptimusP 9 Jun 2009 10:56
2/8
Sure, but how many people buy a console to play madden? And more importantly, don't all potential Madden-players (let's say up to 90% of them) allready have their console of choice to play Madden on?
I call the analysis based on logic that looks good on the surface but if you start asking questions...it doesn't seem logical anymore.
I call the analysis based on logic that looks good on the surface but if you start asking questions...it doesn't seem logical anymore.
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? 9 Jun 2009 16:16
3/8
What about price matching the Xbox360 with hard drive.
DoctorDee 10 Jun 2009 08:00
4/8
OptimusP wrote:
Sure, but how many people buy a console to play madden?
How many people buy consoles to play ANY game. Answer: All console buyers do. So it stands to reason that some must buy their consoles to play one specific very popular and successful. There will be any number of Xbox and PS2 owners out there for whom Madden 10 is the catalyst to upgrade to a current gen console. And of course, they are more likely to choose the 360 based on price.
And more importantly, don't all potential Madden-players (let's say up to 90% of them) allready have their console of choice to play Madden on?
So based on your numbers, that's 200,000 console sales in the one week that are up for grabs.
I call the analysis based on logic that looks good on the surface but if you start asking questions...it doesn't seem logical anymore.
I think it looks logical based on your numbers, my personal numbers were much less optimistic. I assumed that 97% of Madden buyers would have their console of choice, and that Sony would be gunning for only 60,000 potential sales.
Thing is they need to price cut, and hanging it on the Madden release would not be illogical. I'm not saying that I think it's going to happen - Sony has certainly denied it enough. But they would, wouldn't they? But there is a certain logic to it.
OptimusP 10 Jun 2009 08:42
5/8
DoctorDee wrote:
OptimusP wrote:
Sure, but how many people buy a console to play madden?
How many people buy consoles to play ANY game. Answer: All console buyers do. So it stands to reason that some must buy their consoles to play one specific very popular and successful. There will be any number of Xbox and PS2 owners out there for whom Madden 10 is the catalyst to upgrade to a current gen console. And of course, they are more likely to choose the 360 based on price.
That's an very excessive generalization. Yes, everyone buys consoles to play games, but there are so many games out there that the percentage of people with Xbox's or PS2's that buy a PS3 for Madden 10 will be incredible small in comparison.
DoctorDee wrote:
And more importantly, don't all potential Madden-players (let's say up to 90% of them) allready have their console of choice to play Madden on?
So based on your numbers, that's 200,000 console sales in the one week that are up for grabs.
Hmm, i was quite optimistic with that one...on the other hand...there are three consoles which will receive Madden 10 (is EA still making PS2 versions?) so Sony should be very happy if they even receive a third, even if the price dropped, considering the market share to this point.
DoctorDee wrote:
I call the analysis based on logic that looks good on the surface but if you start asking questions...it doesn't seem logical anymore.
I think it looks logical based on your numbers, my personal numbers were much less optimistic. I assumed that 97% of Madden buyers would have their console of choice, and that Sony would be gunning for only 60,000 potential sales.
They did seem logical based on my numbers actually ^^. But still, realistic speaking (now, hopefully :p). That's maybe 20 000 consoles sold for Sony using a three-way split. That's hardly any kind of peak in monthly sales, 60 000 would be a relative one...but not one to be clamoring about as an market analyst (which is the actual point i was trying to make, sorry for that)
DoctorDee wrote:
Thing is they need to price cut, and hanging it on the Madden release would not be illogical. I'm not saying that I think it's going to happen - Sony has certainly denied it enough. But they would, wouldn't they? But there is a certain logic to it.
There is a logic behind it, but the numbers would be so small, Sony would be an idiot so follow this analyst plan just for those numbers. Also the analyst doesn't keep in mind that Sony isn't in "waste money to gain money " mode anymore but in "save money to actually run a profit" mode. Price-drops do not fit in the last one.
Just to say, my critic wasn't really aimed at you, but at the analyst.
DoctorDee 10 Jun 2009 09:46
6/8
OptimusP wrote:
Just to say, my critic wasn't really aimed at you, but at the analyst.
Yeah, I took it in good spirit. I do not agree with the analyst either. But my point is simply they have to hang a price drop on some thing, and Madden is as good as anything. I was in the States for Madden release day a couple years ago. I was crossing the Puget Sound on a car ferry, and radio chat shows were devoting their whole morning to talking about the game - it really is a big cultural and media event over there.
binclintonusa 12 Jun 2009 03:27
7/8
I was crossing the Puget Sound on a car ferry, and radio chat shows were devoting their whole morning to talking about the game.
pret auto
pret auto
bobtom115 23 Jun 2009 06:41
8/8