Time to reach for your industrial-sized bag of salt again. Another hardware rumour has emerged, this time supposedly detailing the preliminary specs of the PlayStation 4. If the specs are to be believed, Sony will forgo a massive technological leap in favour of keeping costs down and getting to market in the not massively distant future.
Before we go any further, the official line: Sony, for its part, says it, "Does not comment on rumour and speculation".
If the specs are real, however, the PS4 as it's planned now will be no more than twice as powerful as the PS3. Similarly, it will work with the existing Cell architecture rather than featuring something new. Further to that, XDR memory will be dropped in favour of standard JEDEC RAM.
The specs were supposedly sent out to Japanese developers in order to get some feedback, then leaked to Japanese site PC Watch.
It would seem that the days of technical one-upmanship may be coming to an end...
Sony also, apparently, has a 2011 deadline for getting the console out and plans to beat the next Xbox to market. That fits loosely with the recent opining of Cevat Yerli, CEO of Crytek, who said that the PS4 would likely be out by 2012.
It doesn't fit quite so well, however, with Sony's intention to have a 10 year lifespan for the PS3 - which should take the current console through to 2016. While having the current console on the shelf for ten years doesn't preclude a new one coming out in the meantime, a 2011 release would be a full five years before that.
As we said, keep that salt handy...
Source: PC Watch via NeoGAF
Before we go any further, the official line: Sony, for its part, says it, "Does not comment on rumour and speculation".
If the specs are real, however, the PS4 as it's planned now will be no more than twice as powerful as the PS3. Similarly, it will work with the existing Cell architecture rather than featuring something new. Further to that, XDR memory will be dropped in favour of standard JEDEC RAM.
The specs were supposedly sent out to Japanese developers in order to get some feedback, then leaked to Japanese site PC Watch.
It would seem that the days of technical one-upmanship may be coming to an end...
Sony also, apparently, has a 2011 deadline for getting the console out and plans to beat the next Xbox to market. That fits loosely with the recent opining of Cevat Yerli, CEO of Crytek, who said that the PS4 would likely be out by 2012.
It doesn't fit quite so well, however, with Sony's intention to have a 10 year lifespan for the PS3 - which should take the current console through to 2016. While having the current console on the shelf for ten years doesn't preclude a new one coming out in the meantime, a 2011 release would be a full five years before that.
As we said, keep that salt handy...
Source: PC Watch via NeoGAF
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Comments
SiPie 30 Sep 2008 14:22
1/9
I think it would be likely a Wii-style move if anything. They'd be bringing a different type of controller or something to the table with any new machine. I'm sure with all the talk of consoles become obscelete in future, Sony will be keen to tap some of the casual market that Nintendo has grabbed by the horns.
way 30 Sep 2008 15:23
2/9
I think the intention was to extend the PS3 this way over the ten years anyway, thus keeping the PS3 design and code base. Lets hope they replace the GPU. Sony might be fishing for opinion about the appeal of the design.
The latest Rambus announcement is the pants by the look of it. I wonder what the Jedec alternative is like.
I read that Intel is trying to get a placement for their massive parallel CPU and GPU alternative with a number of console companies (which ones?).
The latest Rambus announcement is the pants by the look of it. I wonder what the Jedec alternative is like.
I read that Intel is trying to get a placement for their massive parallel CPU and GPU alternative with a number of console companies (which ones?).
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SuperSaiyan4 30 Sep 2008 15:23
3/9
I want Sony to release the PS4 first if they can, and if they can afford to yet again go all powerhouse hulk style with the hardware...
Microsoft need to make something more reliable and compact and with better hardware without taking any shortcuts. I am sure Microsoft could easily outdo Sony next gen with the hardware or perhaps have slightly less but be able to do more.
Microsoft need to make something more reliable and compact and with better hardware without taking any shortcuts. I am sure Microsoft could easily outdo Sony next gen with the hardware or perhaps have slightly less but be able to do more.
VinTheDean 30 Sep 2008 16:30
4/9
I like the memory part of the specs. It just makes things easier for the developers.
The processor part also makes sense. The whole processor world is moving toward multi cores anyways. If they can 2 or 4 cell chips in there, that would be awesome.
Also, they need to get a kick ass graphics card. Maybe they would have figured out how to use the cell as a graphics card. That would be great.
The processor part also makes sense. The whole processor world is moving toward multi cores anyways. If they can 2 or 4 cell chips in there, that would be awesome.
Also, they need to get a kick ass graphics card. Maybe they would have figured out how to use the cell as a graphics card. That would be great.
tyrion 30 Sep 2008 17:34
5/9
VinTheDean wrote:
The processor part also makes sense. The whole processor world is moving toward multi cores anyways. If they can 2 or 4 cell chips in there, that would be awesome.
I've been thinking (and saying) this for a while. Keeping the Cell architecture makes the most sense. It's an expandable architecture, add in SPEs or whole Cell chips and you have a 100% compatible, yet more powerful machine.
Joji 30 Sep 2008 19:17
6/9
Without getting technical, I'm sure it will be cool whatever they do. PS3 is already cool, but when they decided to hack pieces off, twist and tweak things, Sony got stupid.
Thinking too technical without consulting developers was why PS3 was difficult and costly. If Sony can manage reasonable cost of development with ease of developer use, they stand more of a chance of succeeding.
However, without ruffling feathers, I think MS will reach the market first. MS need only get 720 into the U.S and Europe for the win, a lot easier for them to do effectively. Sony on the other hand are more likely to release in japan first, and elsewhere later. MS are more likely to make 720 more open and PC like, a good thing for any developer, big or small, eastern or western.
Thinking too technical without consulting developers was why PS3 was difficult and costly. If Sony can manage reasonable cost of development with ease of developer use, they stand more of a chance of succeeding.
However, without ruffling feathers, I think MS will reach the market first. MS need only get 720 into the U.S and Europe for the win, a lot easier for them to do effectively. Sony on the other hand are more likely to release in japan first, and elsewhere later. MS are more likely to make 720 more open and PC like, a good thing for any developer, big or small, eastern or western.
PreciousRoi 30 Sep 2008 22:59
7/9
So its pretty much acknowedged that much of the PS3's "10 year shelf life" will be spent on a shelf, in a used games shop, after being sold to get money for a PS4, or games. Gamers with infant children now might be able to pawn it off on the kids when the PS4 advents, not that small children need a frigging BluRay player, or HD for that matter...I don't think Dora the Explora comes in HD. No one saw that coming.
I do think that Sony will be best served, if they do replace the '3, by not making any radical changes so as to facilitate innate backwards compatibility and mature, practiced development by parties already invested in and familiar with the '3. Easy downgraded, or possibly identical PS3 ports of future PS4 games could also extend the PS3's "shelf life" for little effort, if Sony cares about honoring their commitment to the PS3's consumers that is.
I do think that Sony will be best served, if they do replace the '3, by not making any radical changes so as to facilitate innate backwards compatibility and mature, practiced development by parties already invested in and familiar with the '3. Easy downgraded, or possibly identical PS3 ports of future PS4 games could also extend the PS3's "shelf life" for little effort, if Sony cares about honoring their commitment to the PS3's consumers that is.
tyrion 1 Oct 2008 08:27
8/9
PreciousRoi wrote:
So its pretty much acknowedged that much of the PS3's "10 year shelf life" will be spent on a shelf, in a used games shop, after being sold to get money for a PS4, or games.
For a bit of perspective, the PS1 spent about 53.5% of its "being manufactured" life alongside the PS2 and only had its production stopped eight months before the launch of the PS3.
Sony have a good track record of supporting their "old" consoles. Of course we only have one full lifetime to look at, but the PS2 is still going reasonably strongly almost two years after the launch of the PS3.
Looking at the launch dates, it's obvious that the PS3 was rushed out; there were 2210 days between the launches of the PS1 and PS2, but only 1685 between the PS2 and PS3. With the PS2 still dominating the market as it was in 2006, there was no reason to push the PS3 out except fear of the 360's potential momentum.
Unfortunately, as far as I can see, that earlier than expected launch of the PS3 is what has caused so many issues. The software development environment wasn't complete, developers didn't have a lot of time with the dev kits before launch, manufacture of some of the hardware wasn't up to speed and even the firmware was not complete at launch.
Strange to relate; if the PS3 had launched 2210 days after the PS2 it would have launched on 23rd March 2007 - the exact date of the PAL regions launch.
So based on all of that number-crunching, I'm expecting the PS4 to be launched between June 2011 and November 2012. That's based on 1685 and 2210 days after the PS3 launch. My money's on somewhere in early 2012 though, possibly March because of the PS2's Japanese launch.
See Pachter? Anybody can be an analyst. Of course, I'll "refine" my "estimates" as more data becomes available. :-)
way 1 Oct 2008 09:27
9/9
VinTheDean wrote:
I like the memory part of the specs. It just makes things easier for the developers.
The processor part also makes sense. The whole processor world is moving toward multi cores anyways. If they can 2 or 4 cell chips in there, that would be awesome.
Also, they need to get a kick ass graphics card. Maybe they would have figured out how to use the cell as a graphics card. That would be great.
The processor part also makes sense. The whole processor world is moving toward multi cores anyways. If they can 2 or 4 cell chips in there, that would be awesome.
Also, they need to get a kick ass graphics card. Maybe they would have figured out how to use the cell as a graphics card. That would be great.
Yes, the reality is they were probably just expecting to maintain compatibility by adding more better cells, better graphics GPU and upgrading other hardware in different models. This also maintains compatibility with existing PS3. They should have built up an established CELL developer base by now, so using it again is not such an issue.
The fly in the ointment is that the GPU can apparently outdo a CELL. The cell was planned to do graphics, but eventually decided to go with a GPU for graphics. The other convenient option is to use the Intel larrabee GPU alternative, which is another why use question when you can get a GPU to do CPU functionality just as effectively (and would not surprise me much more effectively in transistor count). But why not just have an open console with an Intel chip and maybe a whooping GPU.
Steve Jobs turned away from Power PC, even though he went to a meeting late in the piece about the Cell, and walked off to Intel. I don't blame him, if I had seen the plans for the PS3 I probably would be looking at doing that too (if I believed Intel could carry it off). He would have been told about Intel's Larrabee, low power process, and other plans, and read the future.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/04/17/intel_larrabee_gpgpu/