Gaming A Disaster For Microsoft

While the Wii is enjoying gret commercial success and the PS3 is flopping, the Xbox 360 is still holding steady. The main problem the Xbox 360 has in the Japanses market is the choice of games. The reason the Xbox 360 is the preferred console in America (by people over the age of 10) is that the Xbox 360 is jampacked with great shooters such as Halo(and sequels), Gears of War, Unreal Tournament 3, Lost Planet, and others.

Unfortunately, these games do not appeal to the Japanese market for some reason, but Americans and Europeans go nuts over them. In Japan, the King of Games has, and always will be the RPG (Role Playing Game) which the Playstation has a multitude of with the monster title in Final Fantasy among others. However, the Xbox 360 is coming out with a large number of traditional RPGs with the upcoming exclusive releases of Blue Dragon(already released in Japan with almost 100% of Japanese 360 owners owning it), Lost Odyssey, and Eternal Sonata.

Also, the news is full of long time Playstation pillars such as Devil May Cry, Grand Theft Auto, Prince of Persia, and Assassians Creed becoming multiplatform and releasing games on the Xbox 360 erasing reasons people would buy those games. This ensures a steady stream of developement for the Xbox 360.

This leaves the Nintendo Wii which has stunned the world with its revolutionary Wiimote. The only selling point for the Nintendo Wii is the Wiimote because outside of Legend of Zelda, the Wii has no exclusives that would make people buy the console just for those games. Eventually, people will reliaze that all they bought was a bunch of arcade games using decades old technology that can be found in the arcade shooters at the nearest Arcade. Several years from now, when the next-generation consoles are 3-4 years from release people will look at what the Wii has (it has already maxed out on graphics BTW, it cannot look better than an launch Xbox game) and what is coming out on the Xbox 360 and PS3 (the pretty graphics with Gears of War, Too Human, Halo 3, Killzone 2, Oblivion, and Lair are just the beginning). People will regret buying the Wii and the next Xbox will be a big seller.

I would say that Microsoft has invested $21billion to develop a platform, a brand, a developer base, and sales channels into a huge global entertainment market. So they have lost $5.4b to do it? Money well spent. This market is too important to ignore, and Microsoft has the deep pockets to keep slugging it out. They would be stupid not to.

You like your graphics a lot then eh!?

I totally disagree about the Wii. While mine has, admittedly, sat in a cupboard since I finished with Zelda - it still gets pulled out now and then when non-gaming friends and family are over for sessions on Wii Sports or Wario and, providing Nintendo and maybe a few more 3rd parties keep putting out a decent flow of 'party' games and the odd 'proper' game (Metroid, Mario, Resi Evil 4...) I'll continue to be happy with it - while using my 360 as my primary platform for single player and online gaming.

For those casual/non-hardcore who bought the Wii as the first console in ages/ever I also think they'll continue to be happy with it - because, unlike the hardcore, they don't buy and play games all the time. Just now and then. If they buy 3/4 games a year and those games are Wii Sports, Zelda, Resi Evil 4 and Super Mario Galaxy... (for example) then I imagine they'd be more than happy. I think this is a key point you are missing in your 'graphics are poor' argument.

I think your examples demonstrates the difference between the typical Wii owner and a "hard-core gamer". Your console has sat in the cupboard since Zelda. You would be considered a casual gamer. The customer you mention who buys 3-4 games a year would be the one considered a "hard-core gamer". Guess which one is worth more to the industry?

Wii players are generally the casual type. There are going to be a lot of Wii owners who bought the system because it's cheap and novel. But a year from now they'll have forgotten about it. It's not going to be a long-term revenue stream.


bruno

err, did you actually read what I wrote? My Wii sits in a cupboard because I regularly play the 360 and only get the Wii out when I've got people over for dinner/drinks/play.

Has anyone actually defined hard-core gamer. I'm not sure, but if they have, I'm pretty sure it's not someone who buys 3/4 games a year.

Shall we try and initiate an ISO standard for hardcore gamer. I suggest someone who buys at least 12 games a year, and who plays on average 20 hours gaming a month... or is that still midcore?

Does a hardcore gamer only buy one game (WoW) and play at least 40 hours a week?

Suggestions?

It's okay, Microsoft usually gets thing right on the third version anyways.

Forbes has failed to realize that Microsoft has continually stated they projected no profits from the Xbox end of things until at least 2009. Forbes caters to the small-medium time investors looking to jump on already rolling investment bandwagons (ie the next to late-comers who can't think two years ahead in investments, much less five).

Let's not even count the fact that in five years physical media for games and other entertainment is likely to disappear and be replaced with on-demand broadband downloads. Who, right that this moment has the most mature online service for delivering such content? Sony and Nintendo squandered their opportunities last generation to get a decent online presence while Microsoft laid the groundwork with Xbox Live. Both N&S are starting at square one this time around which is a significant disadvantage. I hope the Wii will fare well when the introduce online (no gamer in their right mind will want to fart around typing in 16 digit numbers to hook up online with only people they know).

Essentially that article is regurgitating what Microsoft's already stated long term strategy is to Forbes' non-gamer readership with a negative spin on it.

All consols show losses the first year or two of sales, thats because they are selling the hardware cheaper then they are making it for. The money comes from software sales. While right now the PS3 And Wii are posting better numbers thats party because they just lanched , alot of the big games are coming to 360 this summer and fall and they will be on par or better then PS3 in graphics. Also because the devleopers have already had over a year with the 360 to learn all the tricks they will probly be able to make games for the platform easier and cheap than for the PS3. I agree that Japan is important, but expecting the 360 to beat the Japan based companies on their home turf so soon is silly. Games like Blue Dragon Prove that developers are willing to give the 360 a chance even if 360 hasn't "Won" the Japanese over. That Said 360 has something PS3 doesn't, that is the ability to have games that are PC only transfered cheap and easy to their home console, which is good because i don't have 3000 dollars to drop in a gaming rig.

Why is it? Sega and Nintendo beat Atari and Coleco on their home turf in the first few years after launch.

And 360 may have only been around for a couple of years, but Xbox put in three years of trying to crack Japan before it...

Microsoft's strategy may benefit gamers in the short-term with artificially cheap hardware, but if Microsoft were to succeed in forcing Sony and Nintendo out of the gaming business, Microsoft would do the same thing they have done in other endeavors: jack up prices and stop innovating. Case in point: Microsoft has no real competition again Microsoft Office, so they can charge you as much as they want for it. Internet Explorer is another example (although it is free): as soon as MS killed IE's competition (Netscape), MS stopped introducing significant improvements to IE. It was only when Firefox started taking away IE's share of the browser market that Microsoft got off of its ass and came out with the improvements in IE 7.

So you would see the same thing in gaming: once MS had dominance and no real competition, they would jack up the price of the Xbox and stop innovating. If Sony and Nintendo were out of the video game business, you would have no choice but to buy an expensive Xbox if you wanted to to get a video game console.

I think dominance is almost inevitable - it's a lot more likely than three competing companies to be at equal levels. It's basically "fashion," which you can't really get rid of, unfortunately.

It's lucky that Nintendo (or any company) did something "different" and was successful. As to Microsoft, I don't think they, or anyone, can successfully predict for certain what is going to happen in the next several years. Yes, there are many good aspects to Microsoft's (or any company's) game strategy, but don't blindly follow it. The sooner people start getting "on their side," saying things like "[Particular feature] is unbeatable" or "essential," and basically being over-loyal (the same with any company, though), the sooner they will stop having to put effort in - and the more mainstream, and boring, basically, games will get. Halo 3, just like Mario, just like FIFA, etc. are good in their own right, but there needs to be continuous innovation (or challenge) to keep games exciting. Don't be fooled into becoming loyal - all anybody's really after is your money, ultimately.

Microsoft only went into console gaming because the average gamer can't run a computer without viruses, spyware, adware, trial-ware. The average gamer doesn't know how to run a windows computer anymore. But with the amount of emulators and games available for little or no money why play a 360 game when you can play a good ol' game of Mule on the Commodore 64 emulators or all the good old games like Stunt Car Racer for the C64 and Amiga.

Thumbs down to 360, boring.

Xbox360's fate is depending on Sony. The best of Xbox360 is limited by third party developers, hardware limitation and Hollywood studio. The Sony factor is the key to Xbox360's survival. PS2 still outsold all home console hardware month by month. That is around 30 million profit per month and not include game royalties. Therefore PS3 will be sidelined till the end of this year. I believe Sony will shift PS2 development to PSP next year. PS3 will bring out the big guns like @HOME, TripleA games and blue-Ray movies at this Christmas. It will be difficult for Xbox360 to achieve the same growth rate on 2006.

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