GameCube doomed. GameCube set to triumph

Analysts fight it out.

Posted by Staff
GameCube doomed. GameCube set to triumph
As troubled as it is cute, the GameCube’s bid to achieve mass-market saturation is as enthralling a story as the games industry can throw up. Loved by developers, loathed by publishers, the GameCube really does divide opinion unlike anything encountered since the ‘fall and fall’ of the Dreamcast.

Nintendo is still the second biggest player in the games market, behind Sony of course. This was thought to be enough to survive and probably will be. For instance, during 2002, Nintendo saw revenues of $4.6 billion and the firm recently announced it has a cash reserve of Pokemon printed notes to the tune of $7 billion.

And were it not for Microsoft, no concerns would be voiced. An awful lot depends on how aggressively the software giant pursues its latest fixation and how much cash its willing to burn. Microsoft could feasibly buy the industry, though some believe Nintendo is shooting itself in the foot:

“Nintendo is missing out on the current generation of games players,” says David Mercer, VP of the Strategy Analytics Global Broadband Practice. “Culturally it will be difficult for the company to change course, but it must do so in order to secure its long-term position as a leading games publisher.”

Mercer points to the Xbox’s clear online stance and swelling publisher support for the machine, compared to Nintendo’s online reluctance and publisher unfriendly margins.

However, according to a report issued recently, Nintendo can simply continue to bounce along, bulging as it is with cash. The DFC Intelligence report on videogames, comprising over 600 pages, underlines this point well. Nintendo, a traditional, cautious, bottom line-focused Japanese firm, has never flogged a dead horse and is unlikely to start the practice with its key hardware unit. When systems such as Pokemon Mini and Virtual Boy proved unpopular, they were withdrawn with the minimum of fuss. And if the Pokemon plague hits the West with the same level of saturation as it did previously, Nintendo will be buoyant for the foreseeable future.

It’s thought that the much-touted GameCube successor will take to the market, will be aggressively priced, and will be a success: it will make money. Game Boy is set to go from strength to strength with deals for new models already well underway.

At this stage of the game, only a fool would write off Nintendo, as this year’s expected E3 line-up testifies. Mario 128, new Zelda for GBA and GameCube, Mario Kart Online, Pikmin 2, Kirby’s Air Ride and so on. One could be forgiven for posing the question, “Who needs third-party support anyway?”
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