Can Grand Theft Auto IV Stay the Course?

Analyst questions GTA IV longevity

Posted by Staff
Can Grand Theft Auto IV Stay the Course?
While the gaming community is working itself into a foam-mouthed frenzy ahead of tomorrow/tonight's release of Grand Theft Auto IV, analyst Michael Goodman is expressing doubt about the game's ability to maintain momentum at retail.

"I think all the preorder programs now in place for these top titles really end up taking the long-term sales out of many games", said Goodman, who is the director of digital entertainment at tech research and consulting company, the Yankee Group. "So I don't think Grand Theft Auto IV is going to have those kind of legs."

While it's certainly not uncommon to see a big release have a massive first couple of weeks then tail off at retail, David Cole, president of market research firm DFC Intelligence, has said that GTA IV is unlikely to be one of those games. He made a comparison to the Halo series, saying, "If you look at Halo titles historically, they've always been the type of games that everybody rushed out to buy, but the Auto titles have always had lots of legs".

He pointed to GTA 3, which was not only the best-selling game of 2001 in the US, but also the second best-selling game of 2002 - right behind Vice City.

Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst, Michael Pachter, has said that he expects GTA IV to sell 9 million copies before Halloween.

Cole also made reference to the attempted takeover of Take Two by Electronic Arts, saying, "EA is going to have to either up their bid significantly or pull back for six months to a year and hope the Grand Theft Auto hoopla dies down, keeping their fingers crossed that Take-Two is not on a winning streak".

This comes in the face of EA dropping its offer for Take Two to $25.74 (12.96) per share.

You can catch SPOnG's latest GTA IV hands on right here.

Source: Reuters
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Comments

deleted 28 Apr 2008 11:07
1/9
While i would agree for most games that long term sales can be affected (Halo 3), I think for the GTA franchise its different its a must have game that all new 360 owners and PS3 owners will want to make sure they have, anyone who wanted Halo 3 had a 360 or got one, GTA 3, VC, & SA have out sold,

The Sims + The Sims 2 + all Expansions

I feel GTA 4 will sell amazingly well at launch topping around 4 million units i also reckon in 12 months the series will have even out done Halo 3 at 9-10 MIllion units in first year.

Unless im wrong :)
SuperSaiyan4 28 Apr 2008 11:12
2/9
No doubt the game will ace in sales across both consoles, me well am just eagerly awaiting tomorrow hehehehe collectors edition should be dispatched today :-D
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deleted 28 Apr 2008 11:13
3/9
SuperSaiyan4 wrote:
No doubt the game will ace in sales across both consoles, me well am just eagerly awaiting tomorrow hehehehe collectors edition should be dispatched today :-D


Dont know where you preorder yours dude, but i got confirmation on friday mine was shipped, so maybe just maybe it will be on my door step when i get home :-)
SuperSaiyan4 28 Apr 2008 12:30
4/9
Ordered mine from amazon.co.uk as long as I get my copy am fine.
king skins 28 Apr 2008 12:52
5/9
haritori wrote:
SuperSaiyan4 wrote:
No doubt the game will ace in sales across both consoles, me well am just eagerly awaiting tomorrow hehehehe collectors edition should be dispatched today :-D


Don't know where you preorder yours dude, but i got confirmation on friday mine was shipped, so maybe just maybe it will be on my door step when i get home :-)


Mine got dispatched on Saturday, so hopefully it will be there when I get home to! Checked with my house mate who has the day off and nothing yet... but we haven't had any post... fingers crossed.

God, I'm 29. Should I really be caring this much?
YenRug 28 Apr 2008 13:20
6/9
king skins wrote:
haritori wrote:
SuperSaiyan4 wrote:
No doubt the game will ace in sales across both consoles, me well am just eagerly awaiting tomorrow hehehehe collectors edition should be dispatched today :-D


Don't know where you preorder yours dude, but i got confirmation on friday mine was shipped, so maybe just maybe it will be on my door step when i get home :-)


Mine got dispatched on Saturday, so hopefully it will be there when I get home to! Checked with my house mate who has the day off and nothing yet... but we haven't had any post... fingers crossed.

God, I'm 29. Should I really be caring this much?


I know some online dealers, when coping with very large pre-orders (I know this happened with Amazon for the last Harry Potter book), have begun to pre-ship the item to be held at a local level until day of release.
Jimmy 28 Apr 2008 13:23
7/9
Don't worry haritori I'm over 30 and I feel like a kid at christmas waiting for the postman, (and I still watch cartoons :| )

I think GTA will be a juggernaut throughout the year, most people who want it will end up buying it within the first month or so. But it's far bigger than halo3, cod4 and even MGS4 so I doubt sales are going to plumet after a few months.

Best game of the decade? one of them I'm sure, shame really, If EA buy T2 then it could be the last GTA game I buy, no doubt the creative talent at rockstar north will leave the company, and who wants to play on EA servers?

Ah well there's always real time worlds with their crackdown and APB, also based in Scotland/UK I hear.

mrAnthony 28 Apr 2008 19:14
8/9
Am I the only person on the planet not buying this game?
deleted 28 Apr 2008 20:52
9/9
mrAnthony wrote:
Am I the only person on the planet not buying this game?


Yes!
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