Hirokazu Hamamura, president of Famitsu-publisher, Enterbrain, has gone on record to say he believes the PS3 will outsell both the Xbox 360 and Wii in the forthcoming next-generation console war.
He also noted that Wii will initially win-out in terms of short-term unit sales (up until next spring at least) due to the PS3’s limited availability and painfully high launch price.
Speaking at a recent press conference in Tokyo, the Enterbrain president said, "The PS3 will have a tough time globally at the initial stage. Its launch titles in Japan and exclusive software titles overseas are quite limited. But its overwhelmingly realistic graphics will give it a long life span. It will stay competitive even when a game console battle breaks out among a newer generation of machines in 2010. Sales should grow every time Sony cuts prices."
In terms of numbers, Hamamura predicts that Sony will shift 750,000 PS3’s in Japan and 900,000 in North America by the end of 2006. In the same time frame he predicts Nintendo’s Wii to sell 980,000 units in Japan, 1.1 million units in North America and a million units in Europe.
By the end of March 2007, he predicts PS3’s worldwide sales to have hit 4.13 million. Sony’s own predictions are for 6 million worldwide by this time. His predictions for Wii sales at the same time is 5.47 million units, just a little bit short of Nintendo's 6 million forecast.
In terms of longer range predictions, Enterbrain predicts 42,920,000 PS3 sales worldwide by the end of 2010, compared to 30,390,000 Wii sales.
He also noted that Wii will initially win-out in terms of short-term unit sales (up until next spring at least) due to the PS3’s limited availability and painfully high launch price.
Speaking at a recent press conference in Tokyo, the Enterbrain president said, "The PS3 will have a tough time globally at the initial stage. Its launch titles in Japan and exclusive software titles overseas are quite limited. But its overwhelmingly realistic graphics will give it a long life span. It will stay competitive even when a game console battle breaks out among a newer generation of machines in 2010. Sales should grow every time Sony cuts prices."
In terms of numbers, Hamamura predicts that Sony will shift 750,000 PS3’s in Japan and 900,000 in North America by the end of 2006. In the same time frame he predicts Nintendo’s Wii to sell 980,000 units in Japan, 1.1 million units in North America and a million units in Europe.
By the end of March 2007, he predicts PS3’s worldwide sales to have hit 4.13 million. Sony’s own predictions are for 6 million worldwide by this time. His predictions for Wii sales at the same time is 5.47 million units, just a little bit short of Nintendo's 6 million forecast.
In terms of longer range predictions, Enterbrain predicts 42,920,000 PS3 sales worldwide by the end of 2010, compared to 30,390,000 Wii sales.
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Comments
Showing the 20 most recent comments. Read all 21.
tyrion 16 Oct 2006 13:05
2/21
ozfunghi wrote:
Well, i predicted as much. The console race will be a lot tighter this time around, but Sony will probably pull through at the end. Though i wouldn't bet my life on it.
I've said it before, I think PS3/Wii/360 40/30/30% is a fair assessment of the next round in console sales. Always assuming that the consoles last as long as each other in the market place. I can see PS3 lasting longer than 360 or Wii, even accounting for the 360's head start, just because PS1 lasted so long.
jadnice 16 Oct 2006 13:19
3/21
I agree with the authors findings. From a longevity stand point... PS3 will out sell both the Wii (which needs to sell huge numbers withing the first 2yrs to servive and get substancial 3rd party support. After 2yrs its sales number will slow due to its graphic limitiations.) and 360 after 3yrs when the price drops. I for one will be one of them buying the PS3 after multiple price drops.
In the end, after 4yrs, I do see PS3 being the number one system following by Wii then the 360. So for Nintendo this will be a better life cycle for their product. The next gen wars are really going to be special as HD level graphics will not be the selling point for all three systems since all will be graphically on par.
In the end, after 4yrs, I do see PS3 being the number one system following by Wii then the 360. So for Nintendo this will be a better life cycle for their product. The next gen wars are really going to be special as HD level graphics will not be the selling point for all three systems since all will be graphically on par.
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realvictory 16 Oct 2006 13:26
4/21
Well I think that once the numbers are that big, 30,000,000 and 40,000,000 aren't very different.
It would be a shame of the PS3 did outsell everything, because, apart from being more powerful, the attitude is no different, which means the same games, with better graphics.
It would be a shame of the PS3 did outsell everything, because, apart from being more powerful, the attitude is no different, which means the same games, with better graphics.
Joji 16 Oct 2006 13:35
5/21
Dunno about that, its very easy to say. I still think the Wii will outshine PS3 but I can be wrong too.
One thing that will play in all three is getting people online, especially in japan, where folk have been reluctant previously. This could have been so different if Sony had done a better job online with PS2. MS entering the market gave Sony and Nintendo the swift kick up the backside they needed.
I really hope Nintendo sort out the hard drive issue with Wii. While I don't mind buying a nice fat external to hook to it, a Nintendo branded one would be nice, but the judging buy the Wii it'd probable be small in capacity. This is the only thing I think could hurt the Wii most. 512mb is ridiculously small.
Once all are out its possible MS may pick up a few more customers when the find out PS3 isn't really more than a 360 in Sony shoes (if they get the online service right that is). Indeed the games will bring them and we know what japanese tastes like.
If PS3 does succeed this industry is gonna take another dive because many will buy into the graphics in a new box. It'll be the same stuff we've had for another five years, lacking heart, innovation and care. Do we really want this industry to continue? I guess its hands are now in the hands of gamers themselves. Choose carefully people.
One thing that will play in all three is getting people online, especially in japan, where folk have been reluctant previously. This could have been so different if Sony had done a better job online with PS2. MS entering the market gave Sony and Nintendo the swift kick up the backside they needed.
I really hope Nintendo sort out the hard drive issue with Wii. While I don't mind buying a nice fat external to hook to it, a Nintendo branded one would be nice, but the judging buy the Wii it'd probable be small in capacity. This is the only thing I think could hurt the Wii most. 512mb is ridiculously small.
Once all are out its possible MS may pick up a few more customers when the find out PS3 isn't really more than a 360 in Sony shoes (if they get the online service right that is). Indeed the games will bring them and we know what japanese tastes like.
If PS3 does succeed this industry is gonna take another dive because many will buy into the graphics in a new box. It'll be the same stuff we've had for another five years, lacking heart, innovation and care. Do we really want this industry to continue? I guess its hands are now in the hands of gamers themselves. Choose carefully people.
Dreadknux 16 Oct 2006 14:06
6/21
Joji wrote:
If PS3 does succeed this industry is gonna take another dive because many will buy into the graphics in a new box. It'll be the same stuff we've had for another five years, lacking heart, innovation and care. Do we really want this industry to continue? I guess its hands are now in the hands of gamers themselves. Choose carefully people.
I wouldn't exactly call Devil May Cry, Kingdom Hearts, Guitar Hero, Shadow of the Colossus, God of War, Canis Canem Edit, and Katamari (to name a few) to be lacking in heart, innovation and care. Always a problem with the most popular consoles is that all the sterling stuff can't be picked out so easily. I'd say there was no less imagination in PS2's library (regarding number of AAA hits) than Gamecube or XBOX.
I get what you're trying to get at though (just felt like being pedantic :D), diversity will really help Nintendo shove its Wii (lawl) out to the masses. I'll be getting a Wii soon as it comes out, but having said that I think it's somewhat niche approach may make it lose out to the 'tried and tested' of PS3 in the long long run.
But hey, it's always easier to say the current market leader will be leading the next generation, right? Everyone thought SEGA was gonna rule the 32-bit generation. Whoops.
ozfunghi 16 Oct 2006 15:15
7/21
Svend Joscelyne wrote:
But hey, it's always easier to say the current market leader will be leading the next generation, right? Everyone thought SEGA was gonna rule the 32-bit generation. Whoops.
??
By that logic, wouldn't people have predicted Nintendo to rule the 32/64 bit generation? (Which people actually did). Because Nintendo won the 16 bit era? (Which they actually did).
Don't forget Megadrive/Genesis had a nearly 2 year head start, but lost anyway in the end. SNES was still kicking butt when the competition entered the 32/64 bit era.
Dreadknux 16 Oct 2006 17:02
8/21
ozfunghi wrote:
Don't forget Megadrive/Genesis had a nearly 2 year head start, but lost anyway in the end. SNES was still kicking butt when the competition entered the 32/64 bit era.
In Japan it was. And of course in the West the SNES was still selling because it was Nintendo fans' only thing to look forward to for years to come. Does the fact that the SNES was still selling after Megadrive had made way for the Saturn really count? That's like pitting XBOX 360 against Nintendo Gamecube.
Because Nintendo won the 16 bit era? (Which they actually did).
??
As I said, in Japan it did. But in the West it was a slightly different story. I'm not sure the extent in America (Nintendo was a bigger name in America due to the NES), but certainly in Europe/PAL Territories the Megadrive was the dominant console.
By that logic, wouldn't people have predicted Nintendo to rule the 32/64 bit generation? (Which people actually did).
The N64 wasn't released until well after the PS1 and the Saturn were. People did root for the N64 when Nintendo bothered to push it, but the Saturn was long behind by then, so by the time the N64 did come out, SEGA's dominance had long gone. Your comment suggests people were rooting for the N64 during 1994 and 1995. Which the majority of people actually didn't, because I doubt the codename 'Ultra 64' was even known at that time, and I doubt 'Project Reality' was that well publicised in major gaming circles.
:)
headcasephil 16 Oct 2006 19:19
9/21
working in game you find out what people want and more people come in asking about wii than ps3 you might say that this is because people now that the wii is out before the ps3 but they were asking more about the wii be fore the date of the ps3 date changed
ozfunghi 16 Oct 2006 20:03
10/21
Oink?
So the 16 bit era was over as soon as Sega launched Saturn? Hmm, interesting. So by that logic, if MS launched a new console tomorrow, 360 will have won the "next gen race"? Interesting theory. Because Sega always forced a "next gen" too soon. Maybe i could argue the 16 bit era didn't start until Nintendo entered, and prior Sega sales don't count? WTF. If SNES sold so well after Saturn launched, that kind of defeats your point on its own. I really don't see why you even have to argue about this, it's common knowledge. And it's YOU that wants to compare GCN sales with 360 since its launch, as you seem to believe SNES sales after Saturn launched can't be compared to Megadrive sales anymore.
And SNES sold better than Megadrive worldwide, which is all that matters. I guess you're from GB, since Sega indeed beat Nintendo there, but that was about it. But maybe that's why you're confused and misinformed. And i didn't say people were rooting for Nintendo, but they were expecting Nintendo to gain top marketshare in the 32/64 bit era too, yes.
So the 16 bit era was over as soon as Sega launched Saturn? Hmm, interesting. So by that logic, if MS launched a new console tomorrow, 360 will have won the "next gen race"? Interesting theory. Because Sega always forced a "next gen" too soon. Maybe i could argue the 16 bit era didn't start until Nintendo entered, and prior Sega sales don't count? WTF. If SNES sold so well after Saturn launched, that kind of defeats your point on its own. I really don't see why you even have to argue about this, it's common knowledge. And it's YOU that wants to compare GCN sales with 360 since its launch, as you seem to believe SNES sales after Saturn launched can't be compared to Megadrive sales anymore.
And SNES sold better than Megadrive worldwide, which is all that matters. I guess you're from GB, since Sega indeed beat Nintendo there, but that was about it. But maybe that's why you're confused and misinformed. And i didn't say people were rooting for Nintendo, but they were expecting Nintendo to gain top marketshare in the 32/64 bit era too, yes.
headcasephil 16 Oct 2006 20:17
11/21
to get this sales figers on the Fourth generation sales war the snes still seles the megadrive sales slowed right down in 2004
but World wide sales figures
TurboGrafx 16: 5 Million
Super Nintendo Entertainment System: 49.10 Million as of March 2006 (Japan: 17.17, The Americas: 23.35, Other: 8.58)
Sega Mega Drive/Sega Genesis: 30.75 Million as of December 2004 (Japan: 3.58, Other: 27.17)
but World wide sales figures
TurboGrafx 16: 5 Million
Super Nintendo Entertainment System: 49.10 Million as of March 2006 (Japan: 17.17, The Americas: 23.35, Other: 8.58)
Sega Mega Drive/Sega Genesis: 30.75 Million as of December 2004 (Japan: 3.58, Other: 27.17)
Dreadknux 16 Oct 2006 21:19
12/21
ozfunghi wrote:
So the 16 bit era was over as soon as Sega launched Saturn? Hmm, interesting. So by that logic, if MS launched a new console tomorrow, 360 will have won the "next gen race"? Interesting theory. Because Sega always forced a "next gen" too soon. Maybe i could argue the 16 bit era didn't start until Nintendo entered, and prior Sega sales don't count? WTF. If SNES sold so well after Saturn launched, that kind of defeats your point on its own. I really don't see why you even have to argue about this, it's common knowledge. And it's YOU that wants to compare GCN sales with 360 since its launch, as you seem to believe SNES sales after Saturn launched can't be compared to Megadrive sales anymore.
OK, you done me, heh. Being a Brit, and this being a British website, you can understand me using SEGA rather than Nintendo. Still, my earlier comment can be altered to reflect Nintendo on a worldwide scale.
vault 13 17 Oct 2006 03:04
13/21
I dunno about all the Sony will dominate again stuff. Sounds a little fanboyish to me, brand loyalty aside. I do think that the Wii will peak though. Unless Nintendo can keep pumping out the innovative titles to keep people coming back, I think graphics will lure people back to 360 or PS3.
headcasephil 17 Oct 2006 03:38
14/21
I do think that the Wii will peak though. Unless Nintendo can keep pumping out the innovative titles to keep people coming back,
going to the handheld now is nintendo doing that with the ds and people are buying ds over psp for that reason
working in game more people of many ages and gameing back grounds come in to the store getting a ds over a psp take today we sold 15 DS's over 1 psp
the wii i think going to get non games in to games coz of easiness of use over the ps3
a non gamer dose not want to buy some thing that is gong to be hard to use
going to the handheld now is nintendo doing that with the ds and people are buying ds over psp for that reason
working in game more people of many ages and gameing back grounds come in to the store getting a ds over a psp take today we sold 15 DS's over 1 psp
the wii i think going to get non games in to games coz of easiness of use over the ps3
a non gamer dose not want to buy some thing that is gong to be hard to use
soanso 17 Oct 2006 10:44
15/21
I'm sure the Wii will peak in the short term but then everybody thought the DS would do the same.
If the games keep coming then the sale will too. The games don't all have to be innovations either, just good solid fun titles. Another FPS with the Wii controls isn't anything clever or special but a good one would sell millions.
40 million against 30 million is a nice win win situation. I hope the sales between all 3 formats is pretty close this time around. It's the best situation for all of us.
If the games keep coming then the sale will too. The games don't all have to be innovations either, just good solid fun titles. Another FPS with the Wii controls isn't anything clever or special but a good one would sell millions.
40 million against 30 million is a nice win win situation. I hope the sales between all 3 formats is pretty close this time around. It's the best situation for all of us.
vault 13 17 Oct 2006 12:39
16/21
soanso wrote:
I'm sure the Wii will peak in the short term but then everybody thought the DS would do the same
The DS is a much different type of system. Handhelds are held afloat by kids who get what they want. No kids = no sales. I think there's a larger older user base for home consoles and they want better graphics not innovation. Just a casual observation.
ozfunghi 17 Oct 2006 13:58
17/21
Being a 27 yr old, with 19 nieces and nephews (hey, i'm the youngest of 7 children, sue me) between age 0 and 17, i can tell you i know as many adults owning a DS (Lite) as i know children owning one. By the looks of sales in Japan (Brain training etc)... that trend might not just stop at my front door.
Adults i know with a DS: 7
Kids i know with a DS: 7
Adults i know with a DS: 7
Kids i know with a DS: 7
Joji 17 Oct 2006 14:58
18/21
Correction Vault, hand held before the DS were held aloft by sales from kids and adults. You shouldn't assume that Nintendo are new to selling this stuff that only kids by them. This is so far from the truth.
I still own my original GB, which I purchased age 13 and I've had GBA and then DS. What your post should say is that kids game keep a hand held alive when its near its demise, this is very true, just look at the GBA charts for proof of it.
I feel this won't happen to the DS mind, it's penetration to kids and adults, gamers and non gamers has been strong enough to keep sweet games coming for ages, plenty of weird japanese ones too. When the DS is near its death I feel Nintendo will still support all DS software on the next system, because they'd want to keep those adult non gamers coming back for more.
In respect to the Wii the games won't peak, you'll get normal games with a Wii touch and the dedicated Wii games, add the online options and WVC and there's plenty of content to keep people busy. The online element of consoles now give gamers a reason to stay in contact and online with friends and such.
I have to say it would be great if all three sold well. Still most likely be a PS3/Wii race in japan.
I still own my original GB, which I purchased age 13 and I've had GBA and then DS. What your post should say is that kids game keep a hand held alive when its near its demise, this is very true, just look at the GBA charts for proof of it.
I feel this won't happen to the DS mind, it's penetration to kids and adults, gamers and non gamers has been strong enough to keep sweet games coming for ages, plenty of weird japanese ones too. When the DS is near its death I feel Nintendo will still support all DS software on the next system, because they'd want to keep those adult non gamers coming back for more.
In respect to the Wii the games won't peak, you'll get normal games with a Wii touch and the dedicated Wii games, add the online options and WVC and there's plenty of content to keep people busy. The online element of consoles now give gamers a reason to stay in contact and online with friends and such.
I have to say it would be great if all three sold well. Still most likely be a PS3/Wii race in japan.
Johnhl 17 Oct 2006 19:41
19/21
He suggests the PS3 will catch up and surpass in the long term. But I don't see how. A powerful consol will always pull alot of people in but only if you have games to make use of it.
If PS3 has the a significantly lower install base a year from now then the other two whos gonna continue to make games for it?
Now GameCube had a low base but it was Nintendo's consol. It at least always had Nintendo to make games for it and they had big IP's and make great games (Not everyone may like them but as a mority would agree I think). Sony doesn't have Zelda, Metroid, and Mario. Sony doesn't make any games them selfs at least nothing I can recall.
I'm not gonna say that PS3 will be entirely abandend but in a years time I see 90% of the relatively few PS3 games being released on 360 as well. So where is the momentum going to be to propell them to the lead?
I see the future as Wii 40% 360 40% PS3 20%.
If PS3 has the a significantly lower install base a year from now then the other two whos gonna continue to make games for it?
Now GameCube had a low base but it was Nintendo's consol. It at least always had Nintendo to make games for it and they had big IP's and make great games (Not everyone may like them but as a mority would agree I think). Sony doesn't have Zelda, Metroid, and Mario. Sony doesn't make any games them selfs at least nothing I can recall.
I'm not gonna say that PS3 will be entirely abandend but in a years time I see 90% of the relatively few PS3 games being released on 360 as well. So where is the momentum going to be to propell them to the lead?
I see the future as Wii 40% 360 40% PS3 20%.
vault 13 17 Oct 2006 23:36
20/21
Johnhl wrote:
Sony doesn't have Zelda, Metroid, and
Mario. Sony doesn't make any games them selfs at least nothing I can recall.
Mario. Sony doesn't make any games them selfs at least nothing I can recall.
God of War, Wipeout, Twisted Metal, Ratchet and Clank, Ico, Shadow of Colossus, Gran Turismo, Crash Bandicoot, just to name a few.
Also, Sony's got a huge brand loyalty. Fans are rabid. They have a huge Japanese pull. That also means that only certain games types will come out on the Wii and PS3.
That's all I'm saying.
RiseFromYourGrave 18 Oct 2006 01:47
21/21
ICO and SoTC rock my socks