"History suggests Sony will succeed"? How is that?

Both Playstations came out before their tougher competitors, and that could be one of the main reasons why they both sold like hotcakes; that's the reason the 360 will sell like hotcakes. A new piece of hardware, ahead of time, but in a competing generation.

What Sony seems to want is to distance itself from the rest, just like the Dreamcast did. Only this time its by launching after everyone else, and being the most powerful system for a long while, whereas the Dreamcast didn't last too long as the most powerful. I would expect it to do a lot better than the Dreamcast if this forecast were true, but it wouldn't fare as well as if it were launched around the same time as the Revolution.

Plus, launching a year later than the XBOX 360 can't qualify as another generation. Even though the PS3 could kick the 360's ass (on paper, at least), a year difference won't put it in another generation. Considering most people with a 360 or a PS3 won't even have HDTVs that take advantage of the graphical wonders (let alone differences between the two) the systems boast, I can't see the PS3 looking much more attractive to the end user, save a few game exclusives...

So then, as always, it's down to the games. Except this time Microsoft has the head start, and looks to have it for a full year in advance. If you ask me, Sony can't go anywhere but down from now on.

Didn't Gary Penn once say the Dreamcast was a "snack between Playstations"?

At the time I thought he was being an obnoxious prick, but, in a way, his prediction turned out to be true.

The 360 will do well in America, and probably okay in Europe. But for it to be considered the market leader it needs to be big in Japan, and as the latest figures show, even DOA4 can't shift the thing (even the Gamecube outsold it last week).

Will the Mistwalker RPGs be the killer App to finally convince the Japs? After the muted effect DOA4 had on them, it's unlikely.

I predict the XB360 will be a huge success in the US - probably equal to PS3 - so I'll refrain from calling it a snack... maybe Elevenses?

With regard to the graphical performance, there was an article in the Edge which had an interview with guy from ATI who said that the 360 would outperform the PS3 in the long run...

He said that the Nvidia graphics chip was just bolted on as they had 3 internal solutions for the system graphics chip but they dropped them. So they went and asked Nvidia what they could give do for them and they just gave them an off the shelf chip...

But that is from an ATI guy. Does anyone else know anything about this?

But the power thing is all relative. To use the favoured car analogy, its not how much power you have, its how you apply that power through the cars chassis and tires onto the road that counts.




Do you really need to be big in Japan anymore? Their games market is shrinking... and more and more Japanese games makers are looking abroad to sell games. also take into acount the emerging markets where online is a bit thing...

???

Every console comes out before a tougher competitor! Please don't try to tell us that Dreamcast was in the same generation as PS1. Let's not even mention N64, with it's dumbass cartridge media and shocking marketing.

So, ignoring your glib comment, the fact is that PS1 came out after Saturn. It was easier to develop for (and we've been hearing that PS3 is easy to develop for, contrary to common foaflore wisdom) and PS1's superior marketing pushed gaming out of the bedroom and into the lounge. Subsequently, Sony has "owned" the console market since.

Well, as SPOnG's own report on NDS sales suggests; M$, $ony and Ninty DO still need it.

3.5m in Europe, 4m in the US, and 5m in Japan.

Plus:

- PS2 sales are still going strong (last week: 78,646),

- The biggest selling game of two weeks ago (the catchily titled 'Kahashima Ryuuta Kyouju Kanshuu: Motto Nou o Kitaeru Otona DS Training') sold 414,556 units

- The biggest selling PS2 title in the same week was Kingdom Hearts II - 156,837

Looks pretty healthy to me.